Fantasy Football Week 12 Start and Sit
Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 113 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast, I am your host, I am Rob Sullivan. Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat family of podcasts.
Welcome to Week 12. With just two weeks remaining in the fantasy football regular season, all fantasy players fall into one of these three categories – Secured spot in the playoffs, Fighting for one of the last remaining spots in the playoffs, or you have been eliminated.
The fantasy managers that fall into the first category should primarily be focused on Weeks 14, 15, 16. Even the fantasy players that fall into the second category should have one eye focused on the fantasy playoffs and the other focused on Weeks 12 and 13. This week is likely you trade deadline if it hasn’t passed already.
Those of you who can no longer make trades, you will have to depend on your current roster or head to the Waiver Wire as a means for assistance. RotoHeat has y’all covered there as well. Brad Menendez and I bring you a weekly Waiver Wire video each Sunday night over on our YouTube channel. Be sure to like and subscribe, click the notification bell so that you wont miss any of our rock solid content.
Fantasy Football Week 12 Start and Sit recommendations. Different week same drill, 2 starts and 2 sits at each position and as always we fire it up with the Quarterbacks.
Derek Carr – Las Vegas Raiders
Sully’s Rank QB8
Carr threw for three touchdowns and had more than 20 fantasy points in last week’s loss to the Chiefs. Facing the Atlanta Falcons this week, I am looking for more of the same from Carr and perhaps a little bit more. The Falcons defense has been brutal against the quarterback position, allowing a league-high 25.9 fantasy points per game.
Four different quarterbacks have scored 29 points or more against Atlanta this season. Derek Carr is a QB that you should feel comfortable with in your starting lineup this week regardless of scoring format.
Tom Brady – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sully’s Rank QB9
Tom Brady has been a frustrating QB to start this season. Most week’s he has disappointed and recently he looks like a 43-year old QB. The reality is Brady’s numbers have been up and down for most of the season, with more down weeks than up. In Week 12 he’s a near must-start in what should be a shootout against the Chiefs.
The Chiefs defense on paper looks good, they have allowed only 17.1 fantasy points per game to QB position. That stat however is somewhat misleading. The QB has put up 20-plus points five different times, including two such performances from Derek Carr. The Bucs defense helps here are well. KC will struggle to run, Mahomes will go to the air and score points, the only hope the Bus have is to do the same. Brady I believe is a top-10 QB option this week.
Ryan Tannehill – Tennessee Titans
Sully’s Rank QB19
I had Tannehill listed in this spot last week and he provided a start worthy performance with 21.9 fantasy points against Baltimore. He’s got another tough match-up this week, the Indianapolis Colts, are his week 12 opponent and those same Colts held Tannehill to a 10.8 fantasy points just two weeks ago.
Overall, Indianapolis has held opposing quarterbacks to fewer than 13 points in games at Lucas Oil Stadium. Only Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson have had success in Indy in 2020. With no bye weeks and all QBs available this week you can and should do better.
Carson Wentz – Philadelphia Eagles
Sully’s Rank QB24
My personal QB piñata returns in Week 12. Carson Wentz has been terrible this season, but he was a viable fantasy QB most weeks. Recently he’s been bad in fantasy and real life. He’s failed to score 15 fantasy points in a game since Week 7. He’s giving the ball away like Oprah gives out gifts. He has 14 interceptions on the season and the nest highest has 11.
This makes it tough to trust him even against a soft defense in Seattle. Wentz faces a Seahawks team that’s been gashed by quarterbacks. Unless you’re desperate in multi-quarterback league, Wentz needs to be on your bench. He can be dropped in 1 QB formats.
2. Running Backs
Antonio Gibson – Washington Football Team
Sully’s Rank RB11
Gibson has become a rock-solid No. 2 fantasy runner in recent weeks, scoring 17-plus points in three of his last four games. He’s also seen a 30 percent touch share and 15 red-zone looks in that time. The rookie should remain in fantasy lineups on Thanksgiving Day as the Football Team travels to Dallas.
The Cowboys have allowed five runners, a list that includes Gibson, to score 18-plus fantasy points against them this season. Gibson on the season is RB11, vastly exceeding everyone’s expectations. This match-up is too good to overlook he’s a smash start this week.
Wayne Gallman – New York Giants
Sully’s Rank RB23
Start Wayne Gallman this week. Seriously I am not kidding. Gallman has been since taking the role in New York, scoring at least one touchdown and 13-plus fantasy points in each of his last four games. He’s compiled an average of 15.5 touches and a near 30 percent touch share during that time.
Gallman should be considered an attractive RB2/flex option this week in a matchup against the Bengals. Their defense has allowed 14-plus points to running backs eight times, so Gallman is a nice option.
Damien Harris – New England Patriots
Sully’s Rank RB26
Harris has seen a decent touch share (29.1 percent) for the Patriots over his last four games, and he’s averaged nearly 12 fantasy points in that time. So while that makes him worth a flex start, keep in mind that he could start to lose a few of those touches to Sony Michel.
The Patriots are going to need to score if they hope to keep up with the Cardinals this week. Harris does nothing in the passing game, making James White a better fantasy option against the high-powered Cardinals offense this weekend.
Melvin Gordon – Denver Broncos
Sully’s Rank RB31
I had Melvin Gordon as a sit last week, and full disclosure I was force to start him in one of my leagues. Well, Gordon went off last week, he posted 84 rushing yards and two touchdowns in a win over the Miami Dolphins. It may appear on the surface that you need to start Gordon this week, well I am here to tell you that you don’t. I’d lower expectations against the Saints.
Their defense has been tough on running backs, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to the position. It is important to note that Gordon and Phillip Lindsay split both snaps and touches almost equally last week against Miami, so a featured workload is unlikely. Starting Gordon is simply chasing last week’s points that were a fluke in the first place.
3. Wide Receiver
Justin Jefferson – Minnesota Vikings
Sully’s Rank WR10
Last week Justin Jefferson was the start of the week and he hit. I really like this kid, Viking fandom aside. JJ has been on absolute fire in recent weeks, and this week’s matchup against the Panthers isn’t as bad as it might look on paper. While Carolina has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to wideouts overall, on the road they have allowed the ninth most. Adding to that fun fact, WRs that line up on the outside have scored the sixth-most points against the Panthers.
I don’t expect the Vikings to throw a lot but when they do it will be to Jefferson. Adam Thielen is highly questionable for Sunday and Jefferson is a top-12 WR if he sits.
Robby Anderson – Carolina Panthers
Sully’s Rank WR20
Robby Anderson has fallen behind D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel in terms of point production in recent weeks, but I’d keep the faith and start him against the Vikings. He still leads all Panthers wideouts with a 26.5 percent target share, and Minnesota has allowed 17 touchdowns and the fourth-most fantasy points to the position.
What is wild when looking at Anderson’s numbers on the season is he only has 1 touchdown and 818 receiving yards. Wide Receivers are scoring on average one touchdown for ever 162 receiving yards this season. Anderson is due some serious positive regression and my Vikings are just what the fantasy doctor ordered. D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel are also solid starting options this week.
Tee Higgins – Cincinnati Bengals
Sully’s Rank WR43
Higgins has been a tremendous for fantasy managers this season, but I the loss of Joe Burrow is going to be the end of his run of relevant fantasy production. The Bengals are going with Brandon Allen this week, which is better than starting Ryan Finley but it’s still a Brandon Allen. This week’s matchup against the Giants isn’t bad on paper, but Tee Higgins is a pretty tough sell as a fantasy starter with Allen at the helm. The only Bengal that I am comfortable starting is Tyler Boyd and I am not sure comfortable is the best adjective to use here.
Marquise Brown – Baltimore Ravens
Sully’s Rank WR56
Many fantasy managers out there had high hopes for Brown this season, personally I was not one of them. See I get things right once in a while. Those managers that had high hopes have been waiting all season for a WR to produce that has in realty disappointed them week in and week out. Brown has finished with double digit fantasy points twice this season and his best week was WR16 in Week 5. In the last 4 weeks combined he has 17.5 PPR points.
Brown has averaged fewer than five targets in those four games, and the Titans held Brown without a single catch last week. He’ll be on a regular week against a Steelers defense that held him to just three receiving yards in Week 8. At this point, forget starting Brown and consider dropping him.
4. Tight End
T.J. Hockenson – Detroit Lions
Sully’s Rank TE4
Hockenson continues to be a reliable option for fantasy managers, averaging nearly 12 fantasy points a game. The Lions are also all banged up with Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola questionable to face the Texans on Thanksgiving Day, so the targets will continue to be plentiful. So while Houston has allowed just three tight ends to score more than 8.8 points, Hockenson remains a virtual must start.
Evan Engram – New York Giants
Sully’s Rank TE7
Well he is back. A frequent visitor to my weekly start/sit podcast Evan Engram has been tough to trust this season. To be completely transparent I have been wrong on him nearly every time start or sit. Now with that said don’t turn off the podcast, he has been more reliable lately with 10-plus points in three of his last four games. In my opinion his is a must-start this week as the Giants face the Bengals. Their defense has been generous to the tight end, allowing six touchdowns and nearly 15 fantasy points per game to the position. The TE position in general sucks, as a result Evan Engram is a certain top-10 option.
Jimmy Graham – Chicago Bears
Sully’s Rank TE18
Graham has a revenge game this week, facing his former team, the Green Bay Packers, at Lambeau Field. Now I am normally a fan of the revenge game match-up, but not this time. Graham has averaged nearly 10 fantasy points per game on the strength of his five touchdowns, but Graham has been anything but reliable from a fantasy perspective. He’s scored fewer than 8.5 points in four of his last five games. Green Bay has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to tight ends too. Sit Graham this week with confidence.
Jared Cook – New Orleans Saints
Sully’s Rank TE23
Jared Cook was invisible last week, catching just one pass on one target in a win over the Atlanta Falcons. Cook has now seen a mere six targets in his last three games, and things aren’t likely to get better while Taysom Hill is under center for the Saints. In fact, Hill had near tunnel vision for Michael Thomas (52 percent target share) last week. The Broncos are tough against tight ends too, so Cook is relegated to the bench with ease.
That’s going to do it for today’s episode, thank you for reading Fantasy Football Week 12 Start and Sit.
If you have yet to subscribe to Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast you can do so by searching for it pretty much everywhere podcasts can be found. A rating and review of the podcast is greatly appreciated.
In addition you can find me on twitter @RotoHeatSully, in both the RotoHeat Dynasty Fantasy Football group, and the RotoHeat Redraft Fantasy Football group, over on Facebook and you can find me in our Discord group @Sully.
I will be back next week with my Week 13 Start and Sits. Until then, good luck in week 12, stay safe and stay healthy Heat Seekers, and have a very Happy Thanksgiving Weekend.