Fantasy Football Midway Point Top-12 Running Backs

With the final whistles on Monday Night Football, we have reached the unofficial midway point of the 2020 NFL Season.  A season unlike any we have seen before. Injures have ravaged our fantasy players, and the Covid-19 Pandemic cost us one game, and nearly two others.

Several teams have enjoyed their Bye Week at this point of the season, making the average points per game all the more relevant. Here is a look at the Top-12 Running Backs after 8 weeks compared to my preseason rankings- enjoy!

1. Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints
Sully’s Pre-Season Rank: 5
Fantasy Points: 195.70
Fantasy Points/Game: 27.96

2020 Fantasy Football RB Awards
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – SEPTEMBER 13: Alvin Kamara #41 of the New Orleans Saints scores a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second quarter at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on September 13, 2020 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) Fantasy Football Midway Point Top-12 Running Backs

There are a lot of things that have gone Alvin Kamara’s way thru 8 weeks. First off, Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley suffered injuries, eliminating two of fantasy’s top running backs. Secondly, teammate Michael Thomas was injured in Week 1 and hasn’t played since. Third and perhaps most of all, QB Drew Brees has shown that he has little interest and likely ability to throw the ball down field. As a result Kamara is on pace to shatter the RB receptions record.

If Dalvin Cook can stay healthy he has a shot as chasing down Kamara for the fantasy RB title in 2020. Odds are that Kamara even once Thomas returns continues to put up large weekly totals and finishes as 2020’s RB1 overall.

2. Dalvin Cook – Minnesota Vikings
Sully’s Pre-Season Rank: 4
Fantasy Points: 161.90
Fantasy Points/Game: 26.98

Fantasy Football Midway Point Top-12 Running Backs
GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN – NOVEMBER 01: Dalvin Cook #33 of the Minnesota Vikings runs the ball as Aaron Jones #33 of the Green Bay Packers defends during the second quarter of the game at Lambeau Field on November 01, 2020 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) Fantasy Football Midway Point Top-12 Running Backs

Simply put Dalvin Cook is one of the best running backs in the NFL. His biggest obstacle, is himself and his health. I am not one to pay much attention to the injury prone label that many like to throw around, but the reality is Cook has missed 20 games halfway thru his 4th season.

In the first 4 weeks of the season, Cook was RB3 averaging 23.35 points per game. In week 5-8 Cook ranks as RB2 and only appeared in two games, missing one due to injury and the second due to the Vikings bye. Cook in those two games averaged a mind-numbing 34.25 PPR points a game. Cook has a chance at catching Alvin Kamara but the more reasonable projection has him finishing the season as the RB2 overall.

3. Derrick Henry – Tennessee Titans
Sully’s Pre-Season Rank: 8
Fantasy Points: 143.60
Fantasy Points/Game: 20.51

Fantasy Football Midway Point Top-12 Running Backs
NASHVILLE, TN – NOVEMBER 12: Derrick Henry #22 of the Tennessee Titans is hit by Vincent Rey #57 of the Cincinnati Bengals at Nissan Stadium on November 12, 2017 in Nashville, Tennessee. The Titans defeated the Bengals 24-20. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images) Fantasy Football Midway Point Top-12 Running Backs

I was low on Derrick Henry ranking him at 8 this preseason. The main reason for this ranking was the certain regression I expected. In 2019 Henry led the NFL in rushing attempts (303) and yards (1540), and scored a total of 18 touchdowns. His 2020 pace thru 8 weeks (7 games), is 368 carries, 1771 yards, and 18 touchdowns. so much for all that regression talk.

After the first 4 weeks of the season, I looked pretty smart. Henry was sitting at RB15 averaging 17.17 PPR points per game. In week 5-8, Henry is the top scoring RB, averaging 23.03 points per game. His 40.40 Week 6 is the main driver of that result. Henry usually heats up as the season moves along so to find him in the top-3 at the end of the season will not be overly surprising.

4. Ezekiel Elliott – Dallas Cowboys  
Sully’s Pre-Season Rank: 3
Fantasy Points: 138.10
Fantasy Points/Game: 17.26

Fantasy Football Quarter Pole Top-12 Running Backs
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 04: Ezekiel Elliott #21 of the Dallas Cowboys runs the ball against the Cleveland Browns in the first quarter at AT&T Stadium on October 04, 2020 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) Fantasy Football Midway Point Top-12 Running Backs

When ranking my Running Backs entering the season I had Zeke at one time or another ranked anywhere from 1-5 and briefly occupying each spot. In the end I landed him in the third spot, determining that he was in a tier of his own. This is a tale of two seasons for Zeke – 1 with Dak Prescott and the other without.

Playing behind Prescott (including Week 5), Elliott was RB3 overall with 111.70 PPR points and an average of 22.34 PPR points a game. In games 6-8 with a combination of Andy Dalton and Ben DiNucci at QB, Elliott is RB28, averaging 8.8 points per game. He is losing snaps and touches to Tony Pollard and has developed a fumbling issue. Dallas has no clue who their QB will be rest of season and that is bad news for all involved. Zeke is a weekly must start RB without a doubt. As far as his season ending totals go, I see him more in the RB6-8 range than the third spot I had him in at the beginning of the season.

5. James Robinson  – Jacksonville Jaguars
Sully’s Pre-Season Rank: NR
Fantasy Points: 133.60
Fantasy Points/Game: 19.09

Robby Anderson is the surprise of the WR rankings thus far this season and one of the biggest surprises at RB is Jacksonville Jaguars RB James Robinson. Similar to Alvin Kamara, stars aligned for Robinson as well. The Jags released Leonard Fournette, Ryquell Armstead has had challenges with Covid-19 and fellow RB Devine Ozigbo spent the majority of the season on IR.

Thru 8 weeks of the season, Robinson has seen 87.5% of the teams rushing attempts this season. He has 107 carries the rest of the team not including Gardner Minshew have 18. He has added in another 27 receptions. With his 134 touches he has totaled 706 total yards and 6 touchdowns. It will be interesting to see how Robinson does in the offense without QB Gardner Minshew who looks to be out multiple weeks with a thumb injury. Robinson should continue to see the work and if he can hold up I do believe he lands in the top-12 this season when the music stops.

6. Kareem Hunt – Cleveland Browns  
Sully’s Pre-Season Rank: 20
Fantasy Points: 69.70
Fantasy Points/Game: 15.53

Fantasy Football Midway Point Top-12 Running Backs
CLEVELAND, OHIO – NOVEMBER 01: Running back Kareem Hunt #27 of the Cleveland Browns rushes the football against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first half of the NFL game at FirstEnergy Stadium on November 01, 2020 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) Fantasy Football Midway Point Top-12 Running Backs

Prior to the season I ranked Kareem Hunt as the 20th highest scoring RB. The main reason was I envisioned a split with Nick Chubb, with Chubb seeing 60% and Hunt 40%. When Chubb went down with an injury, I was on record stating that Hunt is a top-5 RB rest of season. Chubb was hurt in Week 4. In week 5-8 Hunt has been disappointing coming in as RB13 averaging 12.07 points per game.

I do expect that Hunt will see an uptick in his volume and productivity the rest of season. Cleveland has their bye in Week 9, and from Week 10 thru the end of season I do expect Hunt to be in the top-5 at the position. As a result I do feel that Hunt is a top-12 RB in 2020.

7. Todd Gurley – Atlanta Falcons
Sully’s Preseason Rank: 16
Fantasy Points: 121.80
Fantasy Points/Game: 15.23

Fantasy Football Midway Point Top-12 Running Backs
CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – OCTOBER 29: Todd Gurley #21 of the Atlanta Falcons runs against the Carolina Panthers during the third quarter at Bank of America Stadium on October 29, 2020 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images) Fantasy Football Midway Point Top-12 Running Backs

Todd Gurley comes in at RB7 averaging 15.23 PPR points a game. When you watch Todd Gurley he does not look like a top-12 back let alone a top-7 running back. His 140 carries for 531 yards (3.8 YPC), and his 13 catches for 77 yards (5.8 YPR) don’t add up to a top-12 running back either. What makes Gurley stand out and what makes him a top-7 back this season is he has 8 rushing touchdowns. He is averaging a touchdown a game. 39% of his fantasy production is coming via the score.

Gurley has played in 8 games this season for Atlanta, and his snap counts are down and more importantly his targets are down. He has 20 targets on the season and as noted above the productivity in the 17 catches he has is borderline terrible. Touchdowns are very unpredictable, however I do believe it is safe to say that he won’t maintain one per game the rest of the season. I also expect as the season moves along for his touches to continue to decline. Gurley is not a top-12 back this year and he is the ultimate sell high candidate.

8. Mike Davis – Carolina Panthers
Sully’s Preseason Rank: 56
Fantasy Points: 119.40
Fantasy Points/Game: 14.93

Fantasy Football Midway Point Top-12 Running Backs
CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – OCTOBER 29: Mike Davis #28 of the Carolina Panthers runs against the Atlanta Falcons during the second quarter at Bank of America Stadium on October 29, 2020 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images) Fantasy Football Midway Point Top-12 Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey was injured way back in Week 2, which seems like a lifetime ago. Next man up for the Panthers was journeyman RB Mike Davis. We have seen Davis pop in similar situations before, most notably as a member of the Seattle Seahawks.

Davis has been one of the premier waiver wire adds this season. Since Week 3 he has totaled 103.9 points and is the RB4 overall. He was so good early on that fantasy managers started to wonder if he would hold value once CMC returned. Davis has stalled the past two weeks and CMC is expected back in Week 9. Its been fun, but it is about to strike midnight on Mike Davis in 2020. When McCaffrey gets back on the field Davis’ fantasy value turns into a pumpkin.

9. Aaron Jones – Green Bay Packers
Sully’s Pre-Season Rank: 14
Fantasy Points: 115.00
Fantasy Points/Game: 23.00

Fantasy Football Midway Point Top-12 Running Backs
GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN – SEPTEMBER 20: Aaron Jones #33 of the Green Bay Packers scores a touchdown in the third quarter against the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field on September 20, 2020 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) Fantasy Football Midway Point Top-12 Running Backs

Aaron Jones has missed the past two weeks with a calf injury and in danger of missing Week 9 as well. Prior to the injury Jones was fantastic. He was RB3 overall after six weeks only having played five games. I was dead wrong when it came to ranking Jones at 14 this season. I expected negative regression and Jones somehow was delivering positive regression.

The Green Bay Packers refuse to get Aaron Rodgers more weapons. When Adams returns he will be the 1B weapon to Davante Adams’ 1A. He has all the ability in the world to put up massive numbers like his 45.6 Week 2, that will enable him to finish in the top-12 this year if he gets back sooner rather than later he’s a top 8-10 back in 2020.

10. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Sully’s Pre-Season Rank: 13
Fantasy Points: 114.60
Fantasy Points/Game: 14.33

2020 Rookie Fantasy Tracker Week 16
DENVER, CO – OCTOBER 25: Clyde Edwards-Helaire #25 of the Kansas City Chiefs escapes a tackle attempt by Bradley Chubb #55 of the Denver Broncos in the fourth quarter of a game at Empower Field at Mile High on October 25, 2020 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) Fantasy Football Midway Point Top-12 Running Backs

When looking at CEH’s body of work since the addition of Le’Veon Bell, it would appear that his value is trending down. I am not so sure that is the case however. In Week 7 CEH delivered 13.30 points and his season average is 14.33. Week 8 CEH had a season low 6.10 PPR points. The Chiefs ran the ball only 20 times in that one, 6 for Bell and 6 for Edwards-Helaire.

I am not overly concerned with CEH in terms of his productivity, Bell however is concerning. Bell hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire in his two contests but his mere presence will eat into touches for CEH. Based on the backs on the outside of the current top-12 I don’t see any that will push CEH out if Edwards-Helaire remains healthy. By default I have CEH finishing in the top-12 in his rookie season.

11. Josh Jacobs – Las Vegas Raiders
Sully’s Pre-Season Rank: 11
Fantasy Points: 110.40
Fantasy Points/Game: 15.77

Fantasy Football Midway Point Top-12 Running Backs
CLEVELAND, OHIO – NOVEMBER 01: Running back Josh Jacobs #28 of the Las Vegas Raiders rushes the football against the Cleveland Browns during the second half of the NFL game at FirstEnergy Stadium on November 01, 2020 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Raiders defeated the Browns 16-6. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images) Fantasy Football Midway Point Top-12 Running Backs

During the first 4 weeks of the 2020 season, Josh Jacobs was RB9 averaging 17.25 points per game. In week 5-8 Jacobs was RB22 averaging 13.80 points per game in his three games played.

Jacobs will continue to see the lion’s share of the backfield touches in Las Vegas. He has some durability concerns and his lack of involvement in the passing game caps his ceiling. I see Jacobs running down Gurley and CEH at minimum the rest of the season and finishing in the top-12 for the first time.

12. James Conner – Pittsburgh Steelers
Sully’s Pre-Season Rank: 19
Fantasy Points: 110.30
Fantasy Points/Game: 15.76

2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – NFC West
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – NOVEMBER 01: Running back James Conner #30 of the Pittsburgh Steelers is tackled by linebacker Jaylon Ferguson #45 of the Baltimore Ravens in the third quarter at M&T Bank Stadium on November 01, 2020 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Todd Olszewski/Getty Images) Fantasy Football Midway Point Top-12 Running Backs

James Conner gets a bad rap in the Fantasy community. He has the ever hard to shake injury prone label attached to him. This season thru 8 weeks (7 games), Conner has totaled 110.30 PPR points and is averaging 15.76 a game (13th). The first 4 games of 2020 he was averaging 16.23 points a game and was the RB22 in three games played.

In week 5-8 he is the RB5 and has now finished with over 14.10 PPR points in 6 straight games. Conner in his career has has finishes of RB6 in 2018, and RB31 (in 10 games). In 2020 barring anther injury, Conner will add his second top-12 season to his resume.

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