Well, when I was starting this article, I figured I would write about a few guys in each category. Then, I decided to ask the ROTOHEAT: Dynasty Fantasy Football Group if there was anyone that they wanted to see in the article and my list grew exponentially. 70 total players were requested.
I am not going to write up in depth reasons for all 70, but I am going to try to cover the top 10 and then I have a special personal pick, and then I will list the remaining players with just a buy/sell/hold grade. Let’s get started.
Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Gurley was the most popular request and for good reason. Before the tendinitis, Todd Gurley was widely considered as a top 3 dynasty pick. After the injury & sporadic touches in the playoffs, where we saw CJ Anderson on the field instead of Gurley in many cases, worry has crept into the heart & soul of a lot of owners.
The thing that makes it really painful, is that I think most buyers are a little nervous to offer up players that are similarly valued. It would be a no brainer to me, that if you could get Hopkins, Michael Thomas, or Davante Adams straight up, you do it. The simple truth is, RB’s with tendinitis, aren’t likely to gain value. Especially when they are already towards the top.
The thing that makes this even more difficult, is that most owners are probably getting “package deals” with a bunch of question marks involved. Personally, I am only trading Gurley to eliminate question marks, not add more and at least I know what he can do.
Conclusion: Trade Todd Gurley if you can get the right deal that leaves you questioning your roster less. Look for deals where you can get one of the 3 WR’s above or maybe one of Joe Mixon, James Conner, Dalvin Cook, Amari Cooper + a little something extra. I would stay away from the majority of package deals not including at least 1 stud.
Grade: Soft Sell
Allen Robinson, WR, Chicago Bears
Full disclosure, I am a Chicago Bears fan.
That doesn’t factor into to my decision making as I do my best to keep my personal feelings out of fantasy, but just so you know… Bear Down.
ARob was one of the popular offseason players just a year ago and then largely disappointed in his first season with Chicago. That has seen his value drop almost 2.5 rounds in startup drafts and has him surrounded by guys like Hakeem Butler, Calvin Ridley, Chris Godwin, Evan Engram & N’Keal Harry.
This is just crazy to me. What people forget, is that Allen Robinson is just 1 year older than Calvin Ridley & Evan Engram. 2018 was also his 1st year back from a major injury, the entire Chicago offense was playing with each other for the 1st time, and his QB was basically a rookie (sorry, but John Fox burnt the rookie season) even though he had a year of experience.
That being said, we still saw glimpses of what ARob can be in Chicago:
- Week 2: 10 for 83 = 18.3
- Week 6: 5 for 64, 1TD = 17.4
- Week 10: 6 for 133, 2 TD = 31.3
- Week 16: 6 for 85, 1 TD = 20.5
- Week 18: 10 for 143, 1 TD = 30.3
Conclusion: That is 5 of his 13 starts for Chicago last season including the playoff game vs. the Eagles in week 18. One thing is certain, Robinson is the #1 WR in Chicago. The offense will not be new this season, Trubisky should improve and thus so should Allen Robinson’s consistency & overall numbers.
Derrius Guice, RB, Washington Redskins
This one is much simpler than the previous players. You drafted Guice at the backend of the 2nd round in a startup or likely with the 1.02 in rookie draft last year. If you can get that type of value, then I don’t blame you if you move him.
Conclusion: Most people aren’t getting the value that they spent on Guice right now. He has lost over a round in startup value and the Redskins drafted Bryce Love, which has added even more worry for some. I just think it is a bad time to move him.
TY Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Hilton is a stud, his QB is a stud, but age has to become a factor at some point. Factor in that the Colts brought in Funchess, another big red zone threat, still have last year’s big red zone threat Eric Ebron, and just drafted Parris Campbell, it is easy to understand why so many are curious.
Conclusion: When it comes down to it, TY is 29 years old and it is just not likely that his value holds. I want to get out before that drop. In this case, it may just be because of age and not a lack of production. With that being said, if you are a serious contender, I would be willing to hold Hilton for the championship run. I could also see myself buying in season, as I think he will be even cheaper if owners fall out of contention. But, for the most part, if I don’t think my team can contend, I want to move him now.
Dante Pettis, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Pettis has kind of been a polarizing dynasty prospect since he was drafted last year. It seemed either guys loved him or hated him and there wasn’t a lot of in between. I was one of the few undecided people that didn’t know where I wanted to rank him. We saw some flashes in 2018 towards the end of the year, which is nice indicator for rookie WR’s.
- Week 12: 4 for 77, 1 TD = 17.7
- Week 13: 5 for 129, 2 TD = 29.9
- Week 15: 5 for 83 = 13.3
All this without the 49ers best quarterback. In 2019 he gets Jimmy Garroppolo back, plus draftee Deebo Samuel coupled with TE George Kittle, should help spread out the defensive attention.
Conclusion: I don’t see very many scenarios, outside of injury, where Pettis doesn’t gain value in 2019. Right now he is valued around the same as guys like David Njoku, Will Fuller & Christian Kirk, all guys that I would easily take Pettis ahead of.
Sony Michel, RB, New England Patriots
I loved Sony in rookie drafts last year. He was my 1.02 ahead of Derrius Guice even after he was selected by the New England Patriots. He was easily going to be an offseason buy for me and then he blew up in the playoffs and ruined that.
Another buy window may have opened up when the Patriots took Damien Harris in the 2019 draft. Everyone is suddenly back on the, “I don’t want Patriot RB’s” train again and that is fine by me.
Conclusion: If I am in a league where the owner is nervous about the Pats drafting Damien Harris, I am going to pounce.
Le’Veon Bell, RB, New York Jets
We know one thing and that is the New York Jets are going to feed Bell touch after touch in 2019. Touches = fantasy points. But, for a RB with a lot of tread on his tires, this can be worrisome to owners and prospective buyers, which is why he was one of the most requested players on this list.
Conclusion: If I am buying, I HAVE to be a legit contender and I HAVE to buy him prior to the season. The earlier the better. If I currently own him, I am not thinking about moving him until after the season starts and then I am looking for that contender that is desperate for RB help. I have zero doubts he will produce from a fantasy perspective in 2019 barring injury. I like championships, so this is a guy I want on my contending teams.
Grade: Situational Buy & Sell
Tarik Cohen, RB, Chicago Bears
I love Cohen, but I honestly have no idea what the addition of Mike Davis and the drafting of David Montgomery do to his value. The Bears are already raving about Montgomery’s hands, which was the big issue with Jordan Howard and the sometimes odd usage of him last year. Nagy wants to be able to disguise his plans with versatile personnel.
They are currently saying that all 3 backs will be utilized, but I think Cohen is going to be used more in formations than in years past. How does that affect him? That I can’t answer definitively.
Conclusion: I don’t think anyone outside of Matt Nagy and his crew knows how the Bears will utilize their RB’s. If you buy, you are paying for 2018 Tarik Cohen and that could be paying too much. If you are selling Tarik for 2018 production, that could be selling too low. It is a mind bender for sure.
Corey Davis, WR, Tennessee Titans
As anybody that follows RotoHeat knows, Corey Davis is one of my favorite prospects. A year ago, I was willing to take him at the back end of the 2nd round in startup drafts and he was my 1.01 in rookie drafts two years ago. Since then, he has dropped almost two full rounds in startup value and people are losing faith.
But, I have a rule that I learned not to break last year when Tyler Boyd broke out. If you believed in a WR, do not sell before a their 3rd year.
We have been spoiled so much by instant production from WR’s in the past 5 years that we tend to forget that the OBJ’s, Michael Thomas’ & Cooper Kupp’s are the anomalies. Corey Davis was the 5th overall pick just a couple of years ago, had an injury-riddled rookie season and then Marcus Marriota couldn’t feel his arm for 90% of Davis’ sophomore season. That led to Davis getting a good amount of targets from Blaine Gabbert. Yes, he somehow was still in line to start football games.
Conclusion: Even if you are not a Mariota fan, this is likely the season that if he doesn’t perform, the Titans look elsewhere for a starting QB. They also drastically improved their backup QB by signing Ryan Tannehill, so if Mariota misses time, we won’t have to throw up watching Gabbert. If the running game performs like it did late last season & draftee AJ Brown can command some attention, Davis could be one of those 3rd-year breakout players.
Devin Funchess, WR, Indianapolis Colts
If you want to talk polarizing players, Devin Funchess has to be at the top of the list in regards to the dynasty community. People either love him or absolutely hate him. I am on the side of love him, with one caveat. The Colts have to use him to his strengths unlike the Carolina Panthers.
Funchess is not an outside receiver. He is a big slot guy. Use him like the Saints use Michael Thomas (no, I am not saying Funchess is as talented as MT) or like the Jets were using Quincy Enunwa before they inexplicably moved him outside, which basically rendered him useless.
Conclusion: It is like an Andrew Luck dream to have Funchess & Ebron in the middle with Hilton & Campbell on the outsides. Funchess can eat in this scenario and I want him on my rosters. Remember, Dontrelle Inman… Dontrelle freaking Inman, had value in the Colts offense last year.
Damien Williams, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
This is my personal pick. I have taken so much ridicule this offseason for my “love” of Damien Williams. One of the big arguments against me, both in our Discord and on Twitter was that the Chiefs were going to use one of their first two picks on a running back. I have thought that the Chiefs liked DWill a lot more than people think. The team raved about him late in the season & playoffs and he was rewarded with a 2-year extension in the middle of it all.
But when players come out of nowhere, the public just tends not to believe in them. But if you watched the Chiefs late last season, you can’t deny the burst Williams had. The argument then comes to, “Well, he was fresh and all the other guys were tired.” Ok, so why doesn’t every NFL team just bring in a fresh talentless RB the second half of the season to tear up the tired defenses? Yes, I am not negating that it may be a small factor, but Williams looked damn good and it was always my belief that at worst, he will be the primary pass catcher out of the backfield which brings value in itself.
Conclusion: Williams will battle with Carlos Hyde, who was the 3rd most inefficient running back with 150+ carries. He was essentially Alfred Blue & Dion Lewis and only better than LeSean McCoy & LeGarrette Blount. I am not LeWorried about him. Now, there is a caveat, my grade only goes for those that are truly contending as I don’t think this is a longterm solution. But, I said it months ago, Damien Williams will win people fantasy championships in 2019.
Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
This was a special request and I felt it was definitely interesting enough to cover. The price tag that people are getting for Barkley is just too hard to ignore. How are people overpaying (by a lot) for the highest priced dynasty asset in football?
Example: I just seen a poll that asked Saquon or OBJ, James Conner, Miles Sanders & a 2020 1st. That is just too much no matter how you slice it.
Conclusion: It doesn’t matter whether you are competing or not, Saquon is just bringing too much value to hold on to in most cases. Take offers and see what comes in. If anything like the above is possible take it no matter what.
The Rest of the Guys
- Chris Godwin: Sell on the slot hype.
- Anthony Miller: Buy as he somehow has lost value after 7 receiving TD’s in his rookie season.
- Antonio Brown: Buy if contending. Wait to sell until in season when people see his volume.
- Peyton Barber: Buy if contending. He is cheap and TB didn’t address running back, but improved elsewhere.
- Antonio Callaway: Hold. There is no way to know how he will be used, but still has upside. Taxi stash.
- Cam Newton: Hold. You are selling on the low right now. Sell as soon as he comes back and has a couple good games.
- James Conner: Sell/Hold. His value isn’t going to go up much, if at all. I would hold if contending though.
- Dalvin Cook: Hold. He can gain some value before you need to sell.
- Leonard Fournette: Hold/Buy. He is one of the most talented backs in the league. 2018 was bad, but I see a bounce-back in 2019.
- Dallas Goedert: Buy. I am a firm believer that Goedert ends up a top 5 TE year in & year out.
- Tyreek Hill: Who knows. If he is found guilty, I am on the side he never plays again. There is a HUGE gap between the low end and the high end of what happens here.
- Keenan Allen: Sell. Allen’s value is already dropping and I don’t see it improving much no matter what as he gets older.
- Devante Parker: If you can sell, do it any chance you get. If not, hold and then the first time he catches a pass, sell.
- Robby Anderson: Buy. We saw Anderson and Darnold starting to connect late last season and I only see that improving with the entire Jets team improving.
- Ronald Jones: Hold. I don’t like the player but you aren’t getting any value right now.
- Royce Freeman: Hold. See Ronald Jones.
- Will Fuller: Hold. Sell as soon as he has another good game.
- Tyler Boyd: Buy. I believed in Tyler Boyd coming out and I think he is only going to become more consistent. His value has jumped, but I think he can maintain value for a few years.
- Matt Breida: Hold until he has a solid game or two, then sell. Muddled backfield and you are probably not getting anything for him right now anyways.
- Trey Burton: Hold. You are going to lose a lot of value if you trade him now, from what you paid for him a year ago. I think he improves in year two and while he may not be a top 5 TE, I see him becoming more consistent.
- Chris Carson/Rashaad Penny: Dealers Choice. They are right next to each other in ADP and that makes it tough for both players to retain their value. Carson was not only the better of the two last year, but he was pretty damn good. I do however think that the Seahawks are going to be throwing the ball more, which may lean in Penny’s favor, if he gets better at blocking.
- Demaryius Thomas: Hold. You won’t get anything if you sell, but if Brady & Thomas connect upon his return, you could easily 5x what you would get right now, but even that won’t be a whole lot.
- David Johnson: Hold. Let’s see what this Arizona offense brings this year. They have to incorporate him right of the bat… right?
- Devonta Freeman: Hold and then sell after he has a decent stretch.
- Kenneth Dixon: I am not sure he has any value to do anything with. Even if he has a good game, does anybody believe it will sustain?
- Julian Edelman: Hold/Buy if contending. Sell if not.
- Elijah McGuire: Buy for cheapies if you are a Bell owner.
- D’Onta Foreman: Buy. I think this guy is going to be the bulk of the Houston running game in 2019.
- Mike Gesicki: Buy. Value is only going up.
- Marquise Goodwin: Hold. 49ers have more players. You aren’t going to get anything for him now, but him and Jimmy G did have a decent connection at the end of 2017. Sell after a good game or two.
- Melvin Gordon: SELL. He was really banged up (both knees) at the end of 2018 and has a TON of tread on his tires. He hasn’t been particularly efficient in his career, so a huge decline could be right around the corner.
- DaeSean Hamilton: Buy. People are on the Tim Patrick bandwagon and it has devalued Hamilton.
- Jordan Howard: Hold. You should’ve sold as soon as he was traded to Philly. Now you have to wait/hope he has a nice stretch for another sell window.
- Kareem Hunt: Buy. Missing 8 games, then comes back to a crowded Browns team. He will be somewhere else in 2020 and that is when your trade will pay off.
- James Washington: Buy. He was one of my favorite WR’s in last years draft class and the player I think benefits the most from Antonio Brown leaving.
- Adam Thielen: Hold if contending. Sell if not.
- Travis Kelce: Hold. His value may actually raise if Hill is suspended.
- Jarvis Landry: Buy. I think he benefits a lot from the addition of OBJ. Browns will sustain a lot more drives, which gives more opportunities. Don’t get it mixed up, OBJ and Landry are the focal points of this passing offense.
- Tyler Lockett: Buy. More volume coming.
- Joe Mixon: Hold. His value is high, which makes me want to sell, but if the Bengals get Dalton/Green back, this offense could be even better, which makes Mixon even better, so his value can still improve a bit.
- Russell Willson: Buy. Seahawks are going to be throwing more with a worse defense and just a year ago, Willson was the 3rd highest valued QB behind Wents/Rodgers in dynasty.
- Carson Wentz: Hold. I think he can bounce back and this offense has a lot of talent. If you aren’t a believer, you can sell after a few good games, but I still like the player longterm.
- Kevin White: Buy/Hold. He is cheap, why not? What is the worst that happens?
- Jameis Winston: Sell. This guy is still a top 4 round draft pick in superflex and that boggles my mind. I would be selling every share I had at this price.
- James White: Hold. He will have another nice stretch and then you can sell.
- Adam Shaheen: Buy. He is dirt cheap and the longterm TE in Chicago.
- Mike Williams: Buy. There is a lot of upside here and I don’t think the price tag matches.
- David Njoku: Sell. I think the hype is a little high for a TE that has to battle with Odell Beckham Jr. & Jarvis Landry for targets and then both of them + Nick Chubb for TD’s.
- Spencer Ware: Hold. No value right now.
- TJ Yeldon: Hold. You had a sell window when he signed in Buffalo, but now all the hype is on Singletary.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: Sell. I don’t think he can maintain top 12 value.
- Christian McCaffrey: Sell. This is only based off of his current top 2 value and the fact that I don’t think he can maintain it. No issues with holding, but would be hesitant to buy for his asking price.
- Derrick Henry: Sell! He is still a one dimensional back that is going to be very frustrating to start as he will be inconsistent and largely TD dependent in PPR leagues.
- Alshon Jeffrey: Buy. He has dropped in value and I think contenders should be looking to buy at his current price.
- David Moore: Buy. He has an opportunity and a low price tag.
Do You Agree?
If not, let me know in the comments how you think I am wrong. I know we have to disagree on someone!