In Dynasty, there are certain players that tend to hold more uncertainty, or are more divisive than others. The Dynasty Outlook series takes a deeper dive into those players that the RotoHeat community noted as the guys they are most interested in hearing about. We will look on a player-by-player basis at their immediate outlook, future outlook, and current value. Engage with 1,300+ passionate dynasty players and let the RotoHeat content team know what topics YOU want to hear about by visiting our RotoHeat Facebook page.
Deebo Samuel 2020 Dynasty Outlook
Deebo Samuel made the most of the his Senior Bowl back in 2019. He dominated the week of practice, and in the process caught the eye of San Francisco 49ers Head Coach, Kyle Shanahan. Fast forward a few months and the Niners selected the former South Carolina Gamecock in the second round with the 36th overall selection. Samuel exceeded expectations in his inaugural season with 87 targets, 57 receptions and 802 receiving yards. He added 14 carries for an additional 159 yards and finished the season with six total touchdowns.
When all was said and done, Deebo Samuel finished 2019 as WR35 in PPR scoring with 164.6 fantasy points. The road to his WR35 finish was a tale of two seasons. From week 1 through 7, Deebo sat as WR78, averaging 7.7 PPR points/game. From weeks 8 though 16, he was WR16 with an average of 14 PPR points a game.
Throughout the final 9 games of the regular season, Samuel was one of the best wideouts in all of football. His season-long pace of 224 PPR points would have been good for WR13 on the season. For San Francisco 49er fans, you have to be impressed with how he finished, especially in games versus NFC West opponents. In weeks 8-17, Samuel and his 49ers faced the Seahawks twice, as well as the Los Angeles Rams and the Arizona Cardinals. In those 4 contests alone he totaled 25 catches for 379 yards.
The future for Deebo Samuel in this San Francisco offense appears bright–the same thing the dynasty community thought a year ago at this time about Deebo’s teammate, Dante Pettis. Pettis finished the 2018 season with 103.5 PPR points in 12 games. It wasn’t Pettis’ WR68 finish that excited dynasty managers, it was his weeks 12-16 finish. Pettis posted 79.7 of his 103.5 PPR points in that span and was the WR11 averaging 15.9 points per game.
As long as George Kittle is a member of the San Francisco 49ers, he will be the focal point of the passing attack. Kittle is the only member of the 49ers to receive a higher target share than Samuel, and that likely will not change moving forward. Kittle missed weeks 10 and 11 last season due to injury. In those 2 contests, Samuel totaled 22 targets, 16 receptions and 246 yards. 40.6 of his 164.4 fantasy points (24.7%) came with Kittle in the press box.
Deebo Samuel’s 2020 Dynasty Outlook is still a bright one. It is, however, not as bright as I believe the majority of the dynasty community believes it is. The positives entering 2020 for Deebo are:
1: He will produce at a much higher level that he did to start his rookie season.
2: Emmanuel Sanders is now a member of the New Orleans Saints
3: By default, Deebo is the #1 wide receiver on the 49ers depth chart.
The negatives for Deebo are:
1: The 49ers are all but certainly adding an additional receiver prior to the start of the 2020 season
2: George Kittle remains the man in San Fran, and as a result the pace Deebo was on during the back half of 2019 is not sustainable. I currently have Deebo ranked as my WR26 in my dynasty rankings. When the season starts I would envision having him in the mid 30’s.
Deebo Samuel Dynasty Outlook – Beyond 2020
Regression or no regression, Deebo Samuel needs to be owned and likely started in the vast majority of dynasty leagues in 2020 and for the foreseeable future. Kittle and Samuel can co-exist on this offense, and Samuel will only continue to improve as he enters his second season. Samuel’s athleticism and versatility were put on full display by head coach Kyle Shanahan last season. His WR5 rank in yards-after-catch (461 yards) demonstrates open-field ability, as does his WR2 rank in yards-after-catch per reception. Long story short is Deebo Samuel is not Dante Pettis 2.0.
Deebo Samuel is a “hold” or “sell” asset. As mentioned earlier in this article, the dynasty community is quite high on him. When the community is high on an asset, his value elevates. His current Dynasty League March 2020 Startup Dynasty ADP is 47th overall and WR 23. He is coming off the board in the late 4th round of 12 team leagues ahead of the likes of Michael Gallup, D.J. Chark, Christian Kirk, Tyler Lockett and Adam Thielen. If you can move Samuel for one of these wide receivers and add a player or a pick to the deal, I believe its a move you should make. If you prefer to hold Deebo, no one should argue that decision. His current value makes him a risky player to buy, and buying high on a player rarely works out in the long run.