The 3rd year break-out is a term widely used in the fantasy community.  There is a common belief that most NFL wide receivers do not “break out” until their third year in the league. Some recent examples of players who blossomed in their 3rd year: Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, Cooper Kupp, and Tyler Boyd.

As we approach the 2020 season, there are 33 wide receivers that had their names called in April of 2018 that are eligible to have the third year breakout designation.  Below we rank those 33 third year WR’s into 4 tiers based on the likelihood that they breakout in 2020. 

4. Tier 1 – Have Already Arrived!

2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – NFC South.
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – DECEMBER 30: D.J. Moore #12 of the Carolina Panthers runs with the ball during the first half against the New Orleans Saints at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on December 30, 2018 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers, Drafted 24th overall

DJ Third Year Wide Receivers
D.J. Moore, Christian Kirk, Auden Tate, and 30 Potential Third-Year Breakout Wide Receivers. 19

Through two seasons, Moore is averaging 12.51 PPR points per game and has ranked as WR39 in his rookie season and WR12 in his sophomore campaign playing with a backup quarterback the majority of the season. The Panthers will be trailing the majority of the season, and D.J. Moore should continue to shine.

Calvin Ridley, WR Atlanta Falcons , Drafted 26th overall

Ridley Third Year Wide Receivers
D.J. Moore, Christian Kirk, Auden Tate, and 30 Potential Third-Year Breakout Wide Receivers. 20

Calvin Ridley posted a ten touchdown season in his rookie year and followed it up with seven more in 2019. Locked in as the #2 target in a high volume passing offense, look for Calvin Ridley to continue to produce in 2020 and beyond.

Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos, Drafted 40th overall

sutton 1 Third Year Wide Receivers
D.J. Moore, Christian Kirk, Auden Tate, and 30 Potential Third-Year Breakout Wide Receivers. 21

The addition to Pat Shurmur as the Offensive Coordinator in Denver will benefit the entire offense–think Stefon Diggs in Minnesota. Sutton improved to WR18 in 2019 from WR49 in his rookie season. Drew Lock looks like a starting QB in this league, and Sutton will knock on the door of the top 12 as a result.

3. Tier 2 – 2020 is Breakout Time

SANTA CLARA, CA – OCTOBER 07: Christian Kirk #13 of the Arizona Cardinals runs after a catch against the San Francisco 49ers during their NFL game at Levi’s Stadium on October 7, 2018 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Jason O. Watson/Getty Images)

Christian Kirk, WR, Arizona Cardinals, Drafted 47th overall

kirk Third Year Wide Receivers
D.J. Moore, Christian Kirk, Auden Tate, and 30 Potential Third-Year Breakout Wide Receivers. 22

In two injury limiting seasons, Kirk has averaged 11.6 PPR points per game. At that scoring pace over 16 full games, Kirk would have finished as WR36 and WR22 instead of WR55 & WR40. Christian Kirk is poised to breakout in his second year with Kyler Murray. The Cardinals will run even more plays with a more comfortable quarterback and head coach in 2020. The Cards will still be trailing more than winning and throwing more as a result. Their newly crowned WR1 is about to cash in.

Anthony Miller, WR, Chicago Bears, Drafted 51st overall

miller Third Year Wide Receivers
D.J. Moore, Christian Kirk, Auden Tate, and 30 Potential Third-Year Breakout Wide Receivers. 23

Miller had one of the more productive seasons for a rookie– especially for a BEARS rookie receiver–in 2018, nabbing 33 receptions for 423 yards and 7 touchdowns. Even more impressive is that he accomplished that while playing hurt–and with Mitch Trubisky. Last season, all Miller did was continually get open only to have his Trubisky miss him time and time again. When the Bears finally figured it out, Miller caught fire. From weeks 11-16 Miller averaged 17.62 PPR points per game and finished that stretch as WR8. Even with erratic QB play in 2020, Miller has WR24+ written all over him.

D.J. Chark, WR Jacksonville Jaguars, Drafted 61st overall

chark Third Year Wide Receivers
D.J. Moore, Christian Kirk, Auden Tate, and 30 Potential Third-Year Breakout Wide Receivers. 24

Chark looked like 2019 was going to be his breakout season. One could argue that it was as he finished as WR16 in only 14 games played. After a rookie season in which he finished with 29.4 PPR points, we need to see it again before awarding the breakout title. Touchdown regression could be coming for Chark in 2020. Regardless, he is the #1 WR in an offense that should be trailing often. Chark should finish comfortably within the top 24, if not higher, in 2020.

Michael Gallup, WR, Dallas Cowboys, Drafted 81st overall

gallup Third Year Wide Receivers
D.J. Moore, Christian Kirk, Auden Tate, and 30 Potential Third-Year Breakout Wide Receivers. 25

Coming off a 1000 yard sophomore season, it appears to be all systems go for Michael Gallup as he enters his third season. The status of free agent Amari Cooper could have quite the impact on Gallup. Gallup averaged 1.2 receptions for 18.2 yards in 2018 prior to Cooper’s arrival in week 7. The remainder of 2018 he averaged 2.6 receptions and 39.8 yards per game. He jumped to 4.7 receptions and 79.1 yards on average in 2019. Should Cooper depart in free agency, Gallup may take a step back as the “man”, a la JuJu Smith-Shuster in Pittsburgh last season.

2. Tier 3 – If the Stars Align…

CINCINNATI, OHIO – NOVEMBER 24: James Washington #13 of the Pittsburgh Steelers runs for a touchdown against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium on November 24, 2019 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

James Washington, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers, Drafted 60th overall

washington Third Year Wide Receivers
D.J. Moore, Christian Kirk, Auden Tate, and 30 Potential Third-Year Breakout Wide Receivers. 26

Washington was a big part of the Steelers offense in his rookie season, but struggled for consistency along with the rest of the Steelers offense in 2109. Ben Roethlisberger should be back for Pittsburgh this season, but with Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Shuster ahead of him for targets, a breakout is possible, but unlikely.

Dante Pettis, WR, San Francisco 49ers, Drafted 44th overall

pettis Third Year Wide Receivers
D.J. Moore, Christian Kirk, Auden Tate, and 30 Potential Third-Year Breakout Wide Receivers. 27

What a difference a year makes. There was a lot of optimism for Pettis coming off his 27 catch, 467 yard rookie season. That optimism quickly faded as he became a rarely utilized piece of the Kyle Shanahan offense in 2019. I am not quite ready to quit on Dante, but the reality is he needs a lot of things to fall his way in 2020 in order to have a breakout season. A new address would be a great place to start.

Tre’Quan Smith, New Orleans Saints, Drafted 91st overall

smith Third Year Wide Receivers
D.J. Moore, Christian Kirk, Auden Tate, and 30 Potential Third-Year Breakout Wide Receivers. 28

Smith was limited to only six starts in 2019 and received only 25 targets in the 11 games he appeared in. The news of Drew Brees returning in 2020 will help raise Smith’s value. Barring injuries to the key offensive weapons in New Orleans, Tre’Quan will remain a WR that does little.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Green Bay Packers, Drafted 174th overall

MVS Third Year Wide Receivers
D.J. Moore, Christian Kirk, Auden Tate, and 30 Potential Third-Year Breakout Wide Receivers. 29

The talk of the 2019 preseason was the battle between MVS and Geronimo Allison for the #2 WR role in Green Bay. When all was said and done, it didn’t matter. MVS is proving to be the type of wide receiver one should expect when drafting late in the 5th round.

Russell Gage, WR, Atlanta Falcons, Drafted 194th overall

gage Third Year Wide Receivers
D.J. Moore, Christian Kirk, Auden Tate, and 30 Potential Third-Year Breakout Wide Receivers. 30

Gage showed some promise in 2019. He finished the season with 49 catches for 446 yards and a touchdown. 32 of his catches and 289 of his receiving yards came in weeks 11-16 once Mohammed Sanu was traded and Calvin Ridley and Austin Hooper missed time due to injury. Gage is a nice depth piece, but without a slew of injuries in Atlanta his breakout will have to wait.

Auden Tate, WR, Cincinnati Bengals, Drafted 253rd Overall

tate Third Year Wide Receivers
D.J. Moore, Christian Kirk, Auden Tate, and 30 Potential Third-Year Breakout Wide Receivers. 31

When all is said and done, Auden Tate may just be the steal of the 2018 NFL entry draft. Selected in the 7th round 253rd overall, Tate took advantage of his opportunity last season to compile 40 receptions, 575 yards and a touchdown. Injuries to A.J. Green and John Ross created that opportunity, and should Green depart in free agency, and with the Joe Burrow upgrade as his quarterback, the possibility of breakout season is remote, but a possibility nonetheless.

DaeSean Hamilton, WR, Denver Broncos, Drafted 113th overall

hamilton Third Year Wide Receivers
D.J. Moore, Christian Kirk, Auden Tate, and 30 Potential Third-Year Breakout Wide Receivers. 32

I had DaeSean Hamilton as a potential breakout third year wide receiver penciled in as far back as this time a YEAR ago. The play of Courtland Sutton and the Broncos likelihood to draft a wide receiver in April makes his 2020 breakout season seem unlikely.

1. Tier 4 – Nothing To See Here

LOS ANGELES, CA – SEPTEMBER 22: Houston Texans wide receiver Keke Coutee (16) in pre-game warm ups before a NFL football game between the Houston Texans and the Los Angeles Chargers on September 22, 2019, at the Dignity Health Sports Park in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Keke Coutee, WR, Houston Texans, Drafted 103rd overall

Once a receiver with potential, Coutee failed to stay healthy when given the opportunity in Houston. Depending upon what Houston does in the draft come April, I would question Keke’s hold on his spot on the 53-man roster.

Jaleel Scott, WR, Baltimore Ravens, Drafted 132nd

Scott spent his draft year on injured reserve, and in 2019 he saw a total of 3 targets that he turned into 1 catch for six yards.

Antonio Callaway, WR, Tampa Bay Vipers, Drafted 105th overall

The former Cleveland Browns 2018 4th round selection was last seen on the XFL’s Tampa Bay Vipers injured reserve. Callaway appeared in 16 games in his rookie season and looked to be legit, posting a line of 43/586/5. 2019 was a lost season as he was suspended for the first 4 games of the season and was later released by the Browns. Should he make his way back to the NFL in 2020, Callaway faces an additional 3 game suspension to open the year.

J’Mon Moore, WR, Cleveland Browns, Drafted 133rd overall

The highest drafted wide receiver of the 2018 Green Bay rookie trio, Moore turned out to be the biggest bust. He was released by the Packers in 2019 and signed to the Cleveland Browns practice roster. In December of 2019, Moore inked a reserve/futures deal with the Browns. His future is very much in doubt.

Justin Watson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Drafted 144th overall

With 29 total targets over the course of two seasons in an offense that attempted 1,255 passes in that span, the writing is on the wall. Watson had his shot late last season when Chris Godwin and Mike Evans were lost to injury.

Daurice Fountain, WR, Indianapolis Colts, Drafted 159th overall

Fountain was drafted by the Colts in the fifth round, 159th overall, in 2018. He was waived on September 1, 2018 and was signed to the practice squad the next day. He was promoted back to the 53-man roster on December 7th. Fountain was on injured reserve for the duration of the 2019 season after undergoing ankle surgery.

Jordan Lasley, WR, Free Agent, Drafted 162nd overall

Drafted by the Baltimore Ravens and claimed off waivers by both the Oakland Raiders and Detroit Lions, Lasley has yet to appear in a NFL game. He was selected by the St. Louis BattleHawks of the XFL in the 2020 draft and was later released without seeing any action.

Damion Ratley, WR, Cleveland Browns, Drafted 175th overall

Ratley has recorded 25 catches for 344 yards with a touchdown on 44 targets, in his 26 game career with the Browns. Deep down the depth chart in an offense now led by run first Kevin Stefanski, Ratley is a nice bench stash and nothing else.

Deon Cain, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers, Drafted 185th overall

In his first pre-season game, Cain suffered a torn ACL, ending his rookie season before it started. Cain debuted in 2019 and in his first game had 2 catches for 35 yards. He would catch two more before being released by the Colts in week 7. Cain was added by the Steelers, appeared in six games, and totaled 5 receptions on 8 targets for 72 yards.

Ray-Ray McCloud, WR, Buffalo Bills, Pick 187

McCloud has appeared in 16 games in his two seasons for two different teams. Primarily a kick returner, Ray-ray was drafted by Buffalo, waived by Buffalo, signed by Carolina, waived by Carolina, and signed by Buffalo. Fun fact: he was resigned by Buffalo primarily to be the scout team quarterback in practice.

Dylan Cantrell, WR, Los Angeles Chargers, Pick 91

Drafted in the sixth round, Cantrell was later waived and added to the Chargers practice squad. Injured in training camp prior to the 2019 season, Cantrell was placed on injured reserve after clearing waivers.

Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Green Bay Packers, Pick 207

The third Green Bay Packer selected in the 2018 draft, ESB missed the entire 2019 season with an ankle injury. In his rookie season, ESB had 21 catches and 328 yards. Once a promising prospect, he can be added to the list of “the great Packers receivers that have failed to launch.”

Cedrick Wilson Jr., WR, Dallas Cowboys, Pick 208

Wilson missed his rookie season after suffering a torn labrum in training camp. He appeared in 11 games for the Cowboys in 2019 hauling in 5 of his 8 targets for 46 scoreless yards.

Braxton Berrios, WR, New York Jets, Pick 210

Drafted to be the next slot receiver in New England, Berrios never saw the field for the Patriots. Waived in training camp, Berrios was added by their divisional rival New York Jets. Berrios totaled 6 catches on 13 targets serving primarily as a kick returner.

Javon Wims, WR, Chicago Bears, Pick 224

Wims, the Bears 7th round selection in 2018, has seen limited work for Chicago in his first two seasons. He had a little run in the final two games of the Bears 2019 season in which he caught 6 of his 16 targets for 49 yards. When the Bears receiving core is healthy, Wims will struggle for snaps.

Marcell Ateman, WR, Las Vegas Raiders, Pick 228

Marcell Ateman has totaled 20 receptions for 270 yards and a touchdown in his 18 career games. Ateman was given the opportunity in Oakland after Antonio Brown was released. He failed to impress resulting in the Raiders bringing back camp casualty Keelan Doss and later trading for Zay Jones. Ateman is in danger of being released prior to the start of the 2020 season.

Richie James, WR, San Francisco 49ers, Pick 240

Primarily a kick returner for the 49ers, James does have 15 catches for 295 yards and a pair of touchdowns in his first two seasons. James will be back in that kick returning role for the Niners in 2020.

Austin Proehl, WR, Seattle Dragons, Pick 255

Proehl was drafted by the Buffalo Bills with the second to last pick of the draft, and he has seen time on the practice rosters of the Tennessee Titans and Los Angeles Rams. Currently, Proehl is a member of the XFL’s Seattle Dragons. Through 2 weeks of his Dragon’s career, Proehl has compiled 6 catches for 87 yards and two touchdowns.

Trey Quinn, WR, Washington Redskins, Pick 256

Quinn holds the honor of being Mr. Irrelevant–the final player chosen in the 2018 NFL draft. Quinn has appeared in 15 games in his first two seasons and has 35 receptions, 273 yards and 2 touchdowns to show for it.

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