Buy Low Players 1-8
Recency Bias is a cognitive bias that favors recent events over historic ones. When it comes to investing, recency bias often manifests in terms of direction or momentum. This bias convinces us that a rising player will continue to appreciate, or that a declining player will continue to depreciate. This is a natural occurrence that happens to all of us, and when we take a step back and look at the bigger picture, we may be able to utilize this understanding to our benefit and buy low on players that should be worth more.
In this three part series I will list 24 players that I would recommend buying low prior to the start of the 2021 NFL Season.
ADP data courtesy of Dynasty League Football.
8. DeVante Parker
August SF ADP: 162nd overall
My SF Rank: 95th overall
DeVante Parker has been seeing consistent target volume over the last two seasons in Miami. With the addition of Fuller and Waddle this offseason, there is a chance that we see a dip in the volume Parker has seen recently. However, now that Miami has other talented wide receivers, we could see defenses focus less on Parker in 2021. I am expecting another solid year out of Parker. His current value in fantasy is just entirely too low.
What I would pay: Odell Beckham Jr., Curtis Samuel, or Tyler Lockett
7. Terry McLaurin
August SF ADP: 53rd Overall
My SF Ranking: 24th Overall
Terry McLaurin may finally have a solid quarterback running his offense this season. McLaurin is one of only a handful of wide receivers who could end the season as the overall WR1 in fantasy scoring. We are likely looking at around 8 targets a game for McLaurin in 2021, providing him with immense upside this year.
What I would pay: Calvin Ridley, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, or Ja’Marr Chase
6. DeVonta Smith
August SF ADP: 73rd Overall
My SF Ranking: 43rd Overall
Smith is my WR1 from this year’s rooking class after watching his film from Alabama last year. Once we get the opportunity to see him showcasing his skills at the NFL level, his value will rise quickly. Smith is the most talented wide receiver in the Philly offense and he should command targets every week. I believe that people are too concerned over Smith’s frame and have discounted his price too much because of it.
What I would pay: Mike Evans, Ezekiel Elliot, or D.J. Moore
5. Robby Anderson
August SF ADP: 118th overall
My SF Ranking: 78th overall
No one likes Robby Anderson as much as I do and I am unsure as to why. I think there is an opportunity for him to provide top 15 wide receiver numbers this season. If you can go acquire Anderson for the right price, he could help you win your league this year. Anderson is coming off a season in which he had over 90 receptions. I am expecting that to happen again this year, and he isn’t being valued like a 90+ reception wide receiver.
What I would pay: Michael Thomas, Kenny Golladay, Diontae Johnson, or Josh Jacobs
4. Corey Davis
August SF ADP: 143rd overall
My SF Ranking: 70th overall
How is Corey Davis being valued around guys like Marquise Brown and David Johnson? It’s almost criminal how low the fantasy community is on Davis. I think Davis builds off of his success from last season and dominates the target share in New York. The Jets defense is going to be pretty rough again this year and that will lead to a pass heavy offense. There is a scenario where Corey Davis is top 5 in targets in 2021. His current acquisition cost is crazy if he gets anywhere close to that number. Go buy Davis TONIGHT. It will be too late to get him cheap on Tuesday.
What I would pay: Michael Thomas, Courtland Sutton, Adam Thielen, or Deebo Samuel
3. Jameis Winston
August SF ADP: 96th overall
My SF Ranking: 47th overall
Jameis is on the field. The wide receiver group in NO may be a little shaky but, Jameis is going to sling it around the field regardless. All of those nights having “dinner with Drew” instead of “beers with the boys” should really help with his decision-making. Winston is my favorite Superflex quarterback buy.
What I would pay: Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan. I would also add a 2nd round pick to any of these QBs if it meant I would get the deal done.
2. Rondale Moore
August SF ADP: 120th Overall
My SF ADP: 45th Overall
I debated whether or not I should have Rondale Moore as my favorite buy in this series. But the value and lack of risk on my number 1 guy was too good to pass up. Rondale Moore is listed as the number 4 on the depth chart in Arizona but, I don’t expect him to be there after week 1. Arizona is going to manufacture touches for Moore and he can take it to the house at any given time. Once I saw Moore’s tape in 2018 against my Buckeyes I knew this guy was special. (Link to highlights from that game) I am in 18 leagues this season and Moore is on my team in 15 of them.
What I would pay: Brandon Aiyuk, Mike Evans, or Diontae Johnson
1. Tee Higgins
August SF ADP: 70th overall
My SF Ranking: 26th overall
The man, the myth, the legend. Burrow is back and Higgins’ output will reflect a healthy Joe Burrow. I love the skill set that we have seen out of Tee Higgins. Higgins’ adp before the Bengals drafting Chase was 17 spots higher. Adding Chase’s speed to this offense will benefit Higgins. If you trade away one of the aging receivers listed below for Higgins, you won’t be disappointed.
What I would pay: DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, or Allen Robinson
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