Week 13 is in the books, for some it was the start of the fantasy playoffs and for others it was the last week to get in or secure your seeding. I hope that you are reading this because you are in the playoffs.
As always injuries are a big worry this time of year, and heading into Week 14, here are the key players to keep tabs on: Dalvin Cook (chest/shoulder), Adam Thielen (hamstring), T.Y. Hilton (calf), Marlon Mack (hand), Matt Breida (ankle), James Conner (shoulder), JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee), Damien Williams (ribs), Darrel Williams (hamstring), Jordan Howard (shoulder), Julio Jones (shoulder), Austin Hooper (knee), Evan Engram (foot), Golden Tate (concussion), Gerald Everett (knee), David Njoku (wrist), and Greg Olsen (concussion).
Good luck in the playoffs and should you need any lineup advice hit me up on twitter @RotoHeatSully.
1. Start of the Week
Alshon Jeffery – Philadelphia Eagles WR39 122.20 PPR Fantasy Points
Jeffery has been limited by injury this season, which is nothing new for the 29 year old wideout. Jeffery is appearing in his 8th season and he has only 3 seasons in which he has appeared in all 16 of his team’s games. This week Jeffery and the Eagles face the New York Giants who allow the third most fantasy points (42.1) to the opponents WR’s. Jeffery came back from injury last week and in a losing effort posted 9 catches on a team high 16 targets for 137 yards and a TD. The Eagles are severely lacking when it comes to pass catchers. The 16 targets Jeffery saw last week were a season high, and a match up of this magnitude is a recipe for more of the same.
The Eagles were embarrassed last week in Miami and are still in the thick of the divisional race in the NFC East. This is must win time for Philadelphia and I would expect a lot of Carson Wentz to Alshon Jeffery as a result.
Ryan Tannehill – Tennessee Titans QB28 134.88 Fantasy Points
Since assuming the starting position for the Titans in week 7, Tannehill is QB6 averaging 21.62 fantasy points per game. His QB rating this season is 113.9; his previous career high was 93.5 back in 2016 as a member of the Miami Dolphins. He has looked great this season and as a result he has played himself into new contract talks with the Titans. In week 14 he gets the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders are surrendering on average 22.4 fantasy points to the QB position which ranks 3rd worst. The strength of the Raiders defense is in the run game. Look for the Titans to use Derrick Henry and that run game to open up the passing game for Tannehill and his pass catchers.
Carson Wentz – Philadelphia Eagles QB13 205.40 Fantasy Points
Philadelphia’s offense returned to effective pass-happy ways against the Dolphins, and it should continue against the Giants at home on Monday night. The Giants pass defense stinks and Wentz should have his way on Monday Night. The Giants are allowing 21.3 fantasy points to the opponent QB position this season, and have recently given up 21.70, 20.92, and 28.12 respectively to Sam Darnold, Mitchell Trubisky, and Aaron Rodgers in their last three contests. The Giants have surrendered three-plus passing TD’s to opposing QBs in three of their last five games, and 20.5+ fantasy points in 10 of their 12 games this season. Slam dunk start for Wentz here.
Jared Goff –Los Angeles Rams QB17 180.56 Fantasy Points
Last week’s Start of the Week came through with flying colors, it was the get-right that I anticipated for Goff and the Rams. Facing the Cardinals is one thing, facing the improved Seahawks’ pass defense is a different story. I don’t expect Goff to be completely neutralized by the Seahawks, but the playoffs are must win and I would be more comfortable starting 10-12 quarterbacks over Goff this week.
Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons QB12 208.44 Fantasy Points
In week 13 the Washington Redskins ran for 248 yards against the Panthers. Ryan’s ceiling with or without Julio Jones is limited. Ryan has not been the same since injuring his ankle in Week 7. Weeks 1-6 Matt Ryan was averaging 24.27 points and he was QB4. In weeks 10-13 (he was injured in week 8 and on bye in week 9), He has averaged 14.80 points per game and is QB26. The Falcons would be wise to attack this Panthers defense on the ground versus the pass and as result Ryan should disappoint in week 14.
Delvin Hodges – Pittsburgh Steelers QB41 34.30 Fantasy Points
There are two main things go into this sleeper call for me; 1. Delvin Hodges can sling it, 2. He is facing the Arizona Cardinals secondary. The Cardinals are basically a punching bag for their opponent’s offense. Against the QB position this season they are allowing a league worst 26.1 fantasy points to the other team’s QB. This one is so easy I almost feel like I am sand bagging the sleeper call here
Kyler Murray – Arizona Cardinals QB6 239.24 Fantasy Points
Murray has now thrown for 163 yards or fewer in two consecutive weeks, and 220 yards or less in four of his last six games. The Steelers have held seven of their last nine opponents from the quarterback position to below 197 passing yards. Three of the last four QB’s to face off with Pittsburgh have combined for an average of just 8.41 fantasy points.
3. Running back
Devonta Freeman – Atlanta Falcons RB23 127.70 PPR Fantasy Points
Freeman returned from a two-game absence on Thanksgiving Day and quickly reasserted himself as the lone viable fantasy option in the Atlanta backfield. Freeman carried the ball 13 more times than the next closest Falcons running back in Week 13. No team in football allows more fantasy points to running backs this season than the Carolina Panthers. The team is fresh off of allowing not one, but two 99+ yard rushers.
Kareem Hunt – Cleveland Browns RB58 56.30 PPR Fantasy Points
Since returning from suspension, Hunt ranks as the 11th-highest scoring running back in fantasy football, just one spot behind his teammate Nick Chubb. Freddie Kitchens hasn’t done much right in his first season as the Browns Head Coach, but his ability to incorporate both his top-tier talents at RB within his offense is working. Hunt has now caught five-plus passes in all but one game this season. The Bengals allow the fifth-most fantasy points to the running back position this year, including two 100+ total yard performances over their last four games.
Jonathan Williams – Indianapolis Colts RB72 40.40 PPR Fantasy Points
The Colts running back touched the ball eight times in the first half of last week’s game, only to not log a single-touch in the second-half. The coaching staff claimed “It was kind of a little bit of a hot hand” scenario behind Williams being passed up for Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins for the final two quarters. Apparently, rushing for back-to-back 100-yard performances isn’t enough to garner you the title of having the hot hand. Steer clear of this mess on Sunday. Only the Patriots have allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing RB’s than the Buccaneers have this season.
Ronald Jones – Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB29 119.00 PPR Fantasy Points
The usage of Ronald Jones will always be a mystery. The second-year man was benched for a missed blitz pick up a week ago. He’s also now averaged 3.9 yards per carry or fewer in nine games this season. The Colts have allowed just two rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs since their Week 6 bye. If by some strange twist of fate you are in the fantasy playoffs with RoJo on your roster, be sure to leave him on the bench this week.
Benny Snell – Pittsburgh Steelers RB73 39.20 PPR Fantasy Points
Snell’s startability is reliant on the whereabouts of James Conner. As of now, Conner is still “highly questionable” according to Mike Tomlin. If Conner can’t go, it will be Snell once again in the Pittsburgh backfield. The rookie has averaged nearly 20 touches per game in Conner’s absence. Running backs to touch the ball at least 18 times against the Cardinals since Week 2 average an impressive 22.5 fantasy points.
Tevin Coleman – San Francisco 49ers RB
Coleman has done almost nothing since the Panthers explosion. Raheem Mostert has looked the better and has taken the role from Coleman in recent weeks. It’s possible that Matt Breida could come back from his ankle injury this week as well. All that said, this is an unpredictable committee, and the Saints’ run defense is very tough. Coleman is an easy bust call here.
4. Wide Receiver
DJ Moore – Carolina Panthers WR9 197.00 PPR Fantasy Points
Moore has been brilliant of late, averaging the second-most fantasy points by a wideout since Week 8. He hasn’t seen fewer than nine targets in seven consecutive games, while recording 95+ yards receiving in four of his five most recent outings. The Falcons have allowed four 95+ yard receivers since Week 7, including DJ Moore himself, who racked up 95 yards on eight receptions and 17.5 fantasy points.
DeVante Parker – Miami Dolphins WR20 174.40 PPR Fantasy Points
Well if you can’t beat them, join them my mother always told me. This is exactly what I am doing here. The wideout has scored double-digit fantasy points in nine consecutive games. He’s also seen 10+ targets in four straight weeks. Every receiver since Week 7 who was targeted at least 10 times against the Jets has found their way into the end zone. Since week 7 Ryan Fitzpatrick is the 3rd highest scoring QB, and his #1 WR DeVante Parker is WR3 averaging 18.76 PPR fantasy points a game.
Marquise Brown – Baltimore Ravens WR37 124.00 PPR Fantasy Points
Brown falls into my sit section this week. His two-touchdown performance a few Monday nights ago is likely clouded the judgment of fantasy owners heading into this one. They will use the San Francisco 49ers defense last week as an excuse for his 1.10 total last week, as well. The reality is the Bills pass defense is also rather exceptions. Add to this that Brown has surpassed 49 receiving yards just once since Week 2. Lamar Jackson has now passed for fewer than 170 passing yards in consecutive weeks. The Bills allow the third-fewest passing yards in football this season.
Will Fuller – Houston Texans WR41 119.80 PPR Fantasy Points
Will Fuller is a no-go for Week 14. Arguably the biggest boom-or-bust fantasy option in all of football, Fuller has gone scoreless in all but one game this season, that game just happens to be the one where he scored three. The Broncos allow the seventh-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season. An opposing WR2 has scored just once on the Broncos since Week 9.
Jamison Crowder – New York Jets WR33 134.20 PPR Fantasy Points
There are a few leagues that I won’t be participating in the remainder of the season and one of the main reasons for that is my stubborn tendency to start Jamison Crowder. Crowder has been a bust of late, hauling in a total of four receptions for 26 receiving yards combined the past two weeks. The reason that I am still sticking with him is the targets are there for Crowder (8+ targets in two of his last three games), I still have faith in his ability to produce and I have always been high on the slot guy in an Adam Gase led offense. This one though is mainly based on matchup with the Miami Dolphins this week. The Dolphins have allowed 39.1 fantasy points to the WR position this year (6th worst), and Crowder was 8 for 83 with a touchdown back in week 9 to these same Dolphins.
Emmanuel Sanders – San Francisco 49ers WR30 138.70 PPR Fantasy Points
Emmanuel Sanders does not appear to be 100% after suffering a rib injury back in week 10. He hasn’t played a full complement of snaps since and his productivity in week’s 11-13 puts him at WR70 with an average of 5.63 points/game. Over those same three weeks, rookie wideout Deebo Samuel is averaging 16.17 points per game and is the WR12. Shy away from Manny in week 14.
5. Tight End
Vance McDonald – Pittsburgh Steelers TE24 74.40 PPR Fantasy Points
McDonald has been fantasy irrelevant for the majority of this season, averaging 6.76 PPR points per game through 13 weeks. However, a match up with the Cardinals certainly presents the opportunity to change that, just ask Tyler Higbee. No team allows more fantasy points to the TE position than Arizona does this season. It’s not even close; they surrender five-plus more points per game than the next closest team. They’ve also allowed one more touchdown (13) to tight ends than games they’ve played (12) in 2019.
Jack Doyle, Colts TE14 97.70 PPR Fantasy Points
With Eric Ebron placed on season-ending IR, Doyle has stepped in and stepped up for a Colts team hungry for receiving threats. Doyle was targeted 11 times a week ago, while putting up 19.3 fantasy points, the second-most by a tight end for Week 13. This week Doyle gets the Tampa Bay Bucs, a defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to tight ends this year, including four receiving touchdowns to the position since Week 7.
Jared Cook – New Orleans Saints TE11 101.90 PPR Fantasy Points
Cook has recorded 74+ receiving yards in three of his last four games, while finding the end zone in two of his last three. With that said, no team is tougher when it comes to defending tight ends this season than the 49ers. No player at the position has yet to exceed 62 receiving yards against San Fran in 2019. They’ve also surrendered a grand total of just two TDs to tight ends since Week 2.
OJ Howard – Tampa Bay Buccaneers TE36 56.40 PPR Fantasy Points
I’d almost rather Howard not have had a productive outing a week ago. Because then we wouldn’t all have to be drawn in by his upside. Still, Howard’s scored double-digit fantasy points just twice this season, and his usage continues to be all over the place. The Colts have held every tight end they’ve faced since their Week 6 bye to 30 receiving yards or less. Don’t fall for it, sit O.J Howard.
Tyler Higbee – Los Angeles Rams TE
Higbee went off for 107 receiving yards and 23.7 fantasy points in place of an injured Gerald Everett in Week 13 and was the #1 TE in week 13 as a result. Last week was against the Arizona Cardinals, every TE enjoys playing them. To think that Higbee will continue to receive that type of volume in the Rams’ offense week in week out, is likely not overly wise. With that said, a matchup with the Seahawks is too good to pass up. Seattle allows the second-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Over the last two weeks, they’ve surrendered an average of 86.5 receiving yards and at least 15 fantasy points to the position.
Dawson Knox – Buffalo Bills TE26 68.60 PPR Fantasy Points
The ability is clearly there with Knox; however, the production is not. The reality here and it is easily forgotten is that Knox is a rookie TE. It takes rookie TE’s time and it’s unlikely he breaks out in in Week 14 vs. Baltimore. Knox has scored single-digit fantasy points in all but one game since Week 3. The Ravens have held all but one opposing tight end below double-digit fantasy points since Week 4. Over that span, no TE has surpassed 34 receiving yards against them.
Jake Elliott- Philadelphia Eagles K18 80.00 Fantasy Points
Elliott is fresh off his first double-digit scoring outing since Week 9, after hitting two field goals of 40+ yards. Prior to last week, he had recorded just four such kicks all season. The Giants have allowed an average of 10.16 fantasy points to opposing kickers over their last six games, along with five field goals of 40+ yards.
Sam Ficken – New York Jets K28 59.00 Fantasy Points
Kickers have done absurdly well in recent weeks against the Miami Dolphins. Since Week 6, only one opposing kicker has failed to score at least 11 fantasy points against the Dolphins. Ficken has scored 10+ fantasy points in three of his last five games.
Brett Maher – Dallas Cowboys K10 99.00 Fantasy Points
Brett Maher has been stuck with horrendous matchups of late, and he has struggled to produce as a result. Things are not likely to go much better for Maher this Thursday. The Bears have held opposing kickers below double-digit fantasy points in all but two games this season.
Zane Gonzalez – Arizona Cardinals K6 107.00 Fantasy Points
Gonzalez had been a go-to option at the position for the majority of 2019, however, a one-point outing a week ago will cause concern, and rightfully so. Pittsburgh has held their last seven opposing kickers to an insanely low average of just 4.14 fantasy points. Steer clear of Gonzalez against the Steelers.
Tennessee Titans DST6 110.00 Fantasy Points
Since Week 7, the Titans have scored an average of 10.4 fantasy points, good enough to make them the sixth-highest scoring unit over that span. Over their last three games, they’ve recorded eight sacks, five turnovers, and two defensive touchdowns. The Oakland Raiders offense has seemingly crumbled before our eyes over the last two weeks, allowing no fewer than 18 fantasy points to opposing defenses in back-to-back games.
Pittsburgh Steelers DST3 143.00 Fantasy Points
Since Week 2, Pittsburgh has scored an average of 13.6 fantasy points, with 10+ fantasy points in all but one game. The Cardinals Air-Raid offense has fallen flat over the last two weeks, passing for fewer than 164 yards in each game and allowing an average of 16 fantasy points to the opposing DST.
Buffalo Bills DST9 99.00 Fantasy Points
Buffalo has scored 10+ fantasy points in three consecutive weeks. However, a betting man would likely predict that trend to come to an end against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens on Sunday. Opposing defenses of the Ravens have combined for a total of negative-two points over the last four weeks of play.
New England Patriots DST1 204.00 Fantasy Points
It’s unfortunate that fantasy owners rode the Pats defense all the way to the playoffs, only to possibly leave them on the bench once the playoffs finally begin. However, a smart fantasy owner will likely do just that. New England’s now scored just eight fantasy points or fewer in three of their last four games. Kansas City allows the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing DST this season. Find an alternate DST this week, and if you are still alive I week 15, your reward will be a match up for the Patriots DST against Cincinnati.