5 Players to Avoid in 2022 Fantasy Football
It’s the end of July, and that means redrafts season is basically here. That means it is time to find out who you want to be drafting, and what their current ADP (Average Draft Position) is. It is also time to find out what players you do not want to be drafting, not necessarily because you don’t like the player but because their price (ADP) is simply too steep. More often than not, fantasy analysts are never 100% out on a guy, rather they just do not want them at their draft price.
To help you know who to avoid in fantasy football drafts this coming season, I’ve compiled a short list of 5 players I would shy away from in 2022 redraft leagues, either because I do not like the player or because I think that player is a fade at their current ADP price. ADP will be taken from Underdog.
Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
It might seem crazy to insinuate that you should not be drafting the second-best RB in fantasy from the 2021 season. Some might see it as a bit of a hot take, but personally, I don’t see it that way.
Ekeler had almost historic efficiency in 2021 on the back of a 20-touchdown season. This is all but certain not to happen again this season. We know that touchdowns are the one-off, if not the most, volatile stats in fantasy. Just look at Alvin Kamara in 2018 and in 2020. He had 18 TDs in 2018 and scored just 6 TDs in 2019. In 2020 Kamara had 21(!) TDs but was only able to score 9 in 2021.
Despite this, Ekeler is still the RB3 in Underdog ADP and the sixth player off the board overall. He basically has to replicate his 2021 season to meet that expectation.
If we look at what the Chargers have been doing this offseason, it seems like they want to help take the load off of Ekeler a bit. They went and drafted a big-body running back in Isaiah Spiller. He is the best backup the Chargers have had while Ekeler has been their starting RB, and it could very well mean that they are willing to spell Ekeler more than they did this past season, where he saw the 7th most snaps of any running back.
So be aware of drafting Ekeler as the RB3 in the middle of the first round in your redraft leagues. If you can get him late in the first, sign me up, but his current price is just more than I am willing to pay. Ekeler is one of my players to avoid in Fantasy Football at his current ADP.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
What a difference a team change can make. Hill would have been locked in as a top5 WR in redraft leagues had he been on the Kansas City Chiefs. Instead, he is now with the Dolphins and despite how much Hill himself claims that Tua is a more accurate passer than Mahomes, it is a clear downgrade at QB for the speedy WR.
Underdog ADP currently has Tyreek Hill as the WR9 off the board in redraft leagues and 21 overall, which is probably about right for his situation combined with his talent. However, I am still not at all comfortable drafting him there.
The Dolphins’ offense has been significantly worse than the Chiefs’ ditto, and even though they have added one of the most dynamic playmakers in the NFL, this is unlikely to change. The Dolphins throw less and score less than the Chiefs. This should mean fewer targets, receptions, yards, and TDs for Hill.
Even though he no longer contents with Travis Kelce for targets, Jaylen Waddle is still going to command targets. And the fewer pass attempts made by the Dolphins mean that even if Hill’s target share remains at 23.5%, he is going to see a dip in production.
I would prefer WRs drafted behind Hill in ADP, who are at least in their old offenses and have a known role. That’s why Tyreek is on my Players to avoid list.
Gabriel Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills
I love Gabe Davis as much as the next guy, if not even more. He is someone I have been on board with since before he was a rookie and I own him in a ton of dynasty leagues. However, Davis is currently priced too high, which is why he is one of my players to avoid (at ADP). He is being drafted as the 44th player off the board in 1QB leagues, which is way too steep a price for me. That’s WR20.
To hit that value, he must return borderline WR2 value on a weekly basis, and I am just not sure he is going to be THAT good. I certainly believe that Gabriel Davis is going to have week-winning performances, but as the WR2 in his offense, he is also going to disappoint his owners some weeks. There are other WRs in the same range I would prefer. But at WR20, you need to be producing almost every single week.
I would much rather have Diontae Johnson or Brandin Cooks who are both drafted later than Davis according to Underdog ADP.
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
This is the perfect example of how ADP can change quickly when news breaks. Before the Melvin Gordon signing, Javonte Williams looked like he would be the featured RB for the Broncos who is getting a huge upgrade at QB with Russell Wilson now in town. At that point, Williams was generally seen as a top7 RB and was even drafted as the RB3 in some leagues.
Javonte has since dropped in ADP and is now the RB11, with an overall ADP of pick 22. That means the tail-end of the second round in 12-team leagues.
This is still too high for me to draft him. Last season, Williams finished as the RB17, mainly on the back of playing all 17 games. He was RB26 based on FPTS (fantasy points pr. game) Melvin Gordon was 2 spots ahead of him in FTPS. The two backs split the carries exactly evenly at 203 apiece in 2021.
With Javonte now slated to take on the lead back role, and thus likely claiming a bit more of the split with Gordon, he is obviously going to improve on his 2021-season, but unless the split starts to heavily favor Williams (say 70-30), which seems unlikely given how Nathaniel Hackett employed a two-back system as the offensive coordinator in Green Bay, Gordon is still going to be a factor that will limit Javonte from becoming an RB1.
Javonte Williams is going to be a high-end RB2, but right now he is going ahead of Aaron Jones, Saquon Barkley, and Leonard Fournette. I would instead take my chances on all three of them rather than draft Williams in round 2.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
This choice isn’t an indictment on Josh Allen, as much as it is a general preference to never draft QB early in a 1QB format, regardless of who is available in the first four to five rounds.
Right now, Allen is basically the poster child for grabbing an early QB, as his overall ADP is 30, meaning he is being taken in the early third round. Count me out!
Herbert is QB2 at 46 overall, and Mahomes and Lamar are at 49 and 51 overall. I would never consider any QB in a 1QB redraft league that early because the points edge you get at QB is so much lower than RB and WR and you can find very good QBs in the middle rounds (7-9).
Yes, Josh Allen is likely going to be the best QB in fantasy again this season, but I would much rather have my WR2 or RB2 from this range, where I can expect to get a high-end RB2 or WR2 like DJ Moore or James Conner.
In short, the opportunity cost of taking a Josh Allen in the third round or any QB in the first five rounds is simply too great a price for me to pay. Find your value QB later in the draft and load up on RBs/WRs in your 1QB redraft leagues!
Thank you for reading 5 Players to Avoid in 2022 Redrafts
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