2021 NFL Mock Draft: Version 1

Welcome to my initial 2021 NFL Mock Draft! I have been doing mock drafts since at least 2009, and it may have even been a few years before that, but that is the first one I really remember. There will be a few comments after each listed pick regarding potential fantasy football relevance, for offense, and IDP leagues.

I will be revising this once a week (some revisions will be larger than others, of course) with the final version coming out on April 29th, before day 1 of the draft begins. Remember, this is not what I think team necessarily should do, rather in the end it is what I think they will do. Now then, let’s get to it!

Pick 1 – Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence (QB – Clemson)

I won’t get cute with this right off the bat. Most people expect this to be Trevor Lawrence. If it is, I expect him to come in as a QB2 in his first year. I am not sold on Urban Meyer as an offensive NFL genius like he had been heralded by some in college. That said, I still like Lawrence a ton and expect him to eventually be a long-term QB1. Either way, I think offense as a whole should be markedly improved in 2021.

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Pick 2 – New York Jets: Zach Wilson (QB – BYU)

If I were them, I would try to trade down, leave my faith in Sam Darnold and get more pieces around him to go along with the new coaching staff. I don’t think they do though, and the tea leaves I am seeing point to another QB here. My gut tells me it is Zach Wilson at this time, and that Darnold is traded to another team before or during the draft so that the team can exercise his 5th year option if they so choose.

I’m not sold on Zach Wilson long-term, but if he is starting here day 1 in 2021, he will be a high super-flex draft pick and could end as a fine QB2 for this year.

Pick 3 – San Francisco 49ers: Justin Fields (QB – Ohio State)

With the trade up I am certainly expecting the 49ers to take a QB. I still think that Jimmy Garoppolo starts Week 1 in 2021 for them, but I’d expect whomever the 49ers take here to make some starts in 2021. Jimmy most likely won’t be there in 2022, as his dead cap is under $2,000,000. Because of this, I don’t expect this QB to have big 2021 fantasy implications, but certainly large long-term ones.

I know there is a lot of Mac Jones hype and connections being made, but I just can’t see them trading what they did to move up nine spots for him. I like him, but not that much. Fields is better than Mac Jones, and as of today I still think he’s the guy here, but it could be any of the QBs outside of Trevor Lawrence.

John Lynch has a contract through 2024, and yes, people get fired all the time, but I think they are looking at this as a long term play.

Pick 4 – Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Pitts (TE – Florida)

I think the Falcons should trade down if they can, but you will not see me put any fake trades in these mocks. If they stick to this slot, Pitts is too good of an offensive weapon to pass up. Hayden Hurst (28 in 2021) has his 5th year option available after this year, but Pitts can play like a wide receiver if they want as well.

Matt Ryan’s contract restructuring makes me think they are not taking a QB here (they could get a developmental one in round 2 or 3), and getting younger, dynamic offensive options to keep up in the NFL is a must. Pitts going here likely wouldn’t make him a TE1 off the bat, but I think it would be a great long-term spot.

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Pick 5 – Cincinnati Bengals: Penei Sewell (OT – Oregon)

Like the prior pick, if the Falcons do not trade down and I am Cincinnati, if possible I am trading down a bit get more picks and still find an offensive linemen in round one to help keep Joe Burrow on the playing field. That said, and as they need offensive line help more than anything else, I am stuck with the popular pick for this slot.

I am not convinced that Sewell is the best offensive tackle in the draft, but if an offensive linemen is going this high, I am betting it is him at this time. Any offensive line improvement for the Bengals should help their overall offense, and even if Burrow throws less, I can see his fantasy numbers improving due to higher overall efficiency.

Pick 6 – Miami Dolphins: Ja’Marr Chase (WR – LSU)

Will Fuller and Preston Williams are both free agents next year, so while it may be an amazing landing spot in year one, I like this spot a lot long term. It is a need for Miami, and Ja’Marr doesn’t have to get thrown into the fire…then again, Fuller seems to get hurt a lot (he has only played in 14 or more games a year once) and Preston underwhelmed last year coming off of injury, so who knows. I believe in Tua as a franchise QB in the NFL and can see Ja’Marr as his long term WR1.

Pick 7 – Detroit Lions: Micah Parsons (LB – Penn State)

The Lions need a lot of help (sorry Brad) and while wide receiver is certainly a big need, this is a deep wide receiver class where they can get help later on. The Lions have a new front office and coaching staff; we know that brings changes, and Alex Anzalone, Jamie Collins, Jahlani Tavai and Jalen Reeves-Maybin could use some help.

Parsons is the clear LB1 in this class for me, and prior to the draft, the clear first pick in rookie drafts. This spot would likely solidify that, as Parsons would appear to be a clear day one starter and in a great spot for IDP production.

Pick 8 – Carolina Panthers: Trey Lance (QB – North Dakota State)

There is a good chance Lance goes higher than this (maybe to Atlanta if they want someone to sit a few years behind, or someone trading up) but I like this spot for Lance long-term. Teddy Bridgewater can serve as the team’s QB again in 2021 while Lance serves as his back-up, and Teddy only has a $5,000,000 dead cap hit in 2022, so they could trade or cut him without a ton of damage after this year.

In this scenario, if Teddy does well in 2021, he could also start in 2022 and have Lance take over in 2023. This would not be ideal for fantasy teams of course, and while I like Lance a lot long-term, I do think it is preferred for Lance to sit and learn for a year or two before starting in the league.

Pick 9 – Denver Broncos: Alijah Vera-Tucker (OL – USC)

Drew Lock hasn’t been given much time (18 starts over two years) and I do not think they blatantly give up on him this early. Yes, he hasn’t been great, and they may choose to bite the bullet now and take someone like Mac Jones here, but I think Lock ultimately gets another year to show what he can do. No, I do not think Lock is the long term answer here, but I don’t think they give up on him.

Even with Ja’Wuan James returning, the Broncos offensive line could use help, and Vera-Tucker could play guard or right tackle for them to help shore up the offensive line. The Broncos do not need more skill position players (outside of maybe a long-term running back, but it is too early for that to me), but they do need to give Lock help if they are committing to him.

Pick 10 – Dallas Cowboys: Rashawn Slater (OT – Northwestern)

I am a Cowboys fan and have been since I can remember (around 1990). I understand that they need a cornerback, but this is a deep cornerback class and I would much rather have them take an offensive linemen here, so for now, I will. It is a fact that their offensive line was a mess last year and certainly not what we remember from a few years ago.

I also feel that the Dallas front office understands the need for a good offensive line; their prior drafts prove this. They need to keep their high powered and expensive offense humming, and it is hard to do that with a subpar offensive line. I would love this pick from a fan, and fantasy football, perspective.

Pick 11 – New York Giants: Devonta Smith (WR – Alabama)

I am sure to receive flack for this, but the Giants need to give Daniel Jones everything they can to help him succeed. Smith is a divisive prospect, but I think he would compliment Kenny Golladay well, and Jones would have all the weapons he can handle. Now it would not be ideal for Smith, Golladay, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram, or Sterling Shepard for fantasy, but would help Jones and Saquon Barkley out a lot.

Pick 12 – Philadelphia Eagles: Jaylen Waddle (WR – Alabama)

Looks like we have back-to-back Alabama wide receivers, and for similar reasons. Jalen Hurts appears (at this time) to be the QB in Philadelphia going forward, and he will need wide receiver help. The Eagles currently have Travis Fulgham, Jalen Reagor, Greg Ward Jr, John Hightower, Quez Watkins and JJ Arcega-Whiteside as their wide receivers; while most are still young, few have had their moments. Waddle would be an instant upgrade over what they had last year and likely their WR1 to start the year.

The offensive line was a big issue last year, but most of that was health issues. This could crop up again of course, but I don’t see this as a spot for them to address that.

Pick 13 – Los Angeles Chargers: Patrick Surtain II (CB – Alabama)

Even before the injury to Caleb Farley, Surtain was the top cornerback for most people. I like Jaycee Horn a bit more myself, but Surtain likely goes before him. Surtain would slot in as their CB1 to start the year, and very possibly IDP relevance, as he would be targeted a lot playing against the WR1 on opposing teams.

Offensive line is another option here, but the Chargers’ cornerback depth is filled with players most of us have not heard of, and I don’t see them passing on Surtain if he is there.

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Pick 14 – Minnesota Vikings: Jaelan Phillips (DE – Miami)

The Vikings have a mess on their defensive line. While Dalvin Tomlinson will help on the interior, what they need are edge rushers, and Phillips is a well rounded player. He does not have the ceiling that fellow Hurricane, Gregory Rousseau, has, but Phillips is more ready to play now in a full time role, has the size you want for a 4-3 defensive end, and great 2020 production.

Pick 15 – New England Patriots: Mac Jones (QB – Alabama)

History tells me they will trade out from here in all likelihood, but with that not happening in my mocks, I am going with the another unlikely scenario where Mac Jones falls this far. Teams in the NFL are starved for star quarterbacks, and we see it every year with QBs going higher than we think they will, or should.

If Jones is here I can see Bill Belichick taking him and sitting him for a year behind Cam Newton. The Belichick / Nick Saban connections are well known, and without trades, I just don’t see another team ahead of them taking Jones before this pick. It would not have much of a 2021 fantasy football impact, but I like the spot a lot for 2022 and beyond.

Pick 16 – Arizona Cardinals: Jaycee Horn (CB – South Carolina)

The Cardinals have done a lot to improve this offseason, but their secondary still needs help. Malcolm Butler, Robert Alford and Dre Kirkpatrick (their current top three cornerbacks) are all on one year deals and they need a long term CB1. I love the style of play and attitude that Horn brings, and while not overly relevant for fantasy, I feel it would end up as a great real life pick.

Pick 17 – Las Vegas Raiders: Christian Darrisaw (OT – Virginia Tech)

I really wanted to mock a wide receiver here for my own amusement, but I don’t think it happens, so I won’t. Darrisaw improved a lot this past year and the Raiders need offensive line help after their perplexing handling of it this offseason. Fantasy wise this would be great to see, as the Raiders do not need more skill position players, but do need better guys in the trenches to help their offense function.

Pick 18 – Miami Dolphins: Azeez Ojilari (EDGE – Georgia)

Miami was greatly improved last year, but they still need to find better pass rushing. Andrew Van Ginkel did fine this past year, but they still need more pass rushing help. Ojilari is one of the top EDGE rushers in this draft, with the speed and agility to make play all over the field. He would bring a much needed element to an improving Dolphins defense, and would also be a nice IDP player to target in drafts.

Pick 19 – Washington Football Team: Zaven Collins (LB – Tulsa)

As much as it would scare me as a Dallas fan, I think Zaven would be a great fit at weakside linebacker for Washington. Their linebacking group as a whole needs some help, as Jon Bostic, Cole Holcomb, Mychal Kendricks and Reuben Foster are the only “name” linebackers they currently have. Adding Zaven to this defense would be great for real life and also fantasy, as I think this would drive him up IDP draft boards.

Pick 20 – Chicago Bears: Caleb Farley (CB – Virginia Tech)

Caleb Farley had back surgery (a microdiscectomy) last week, and while he is supposed to be ready for the 2021 regular season, back injuries are nothing to mess with and he will likely fall down draft boards due to it. If it were not for this injury, he may have been a top 10 pick. With cutting Kyle Fuller, the Bears need cornerback help to pair with 2020 2nd round pick, Jaylon Johnson. If a cornerback goes here, they would be a nice late round or waiver target for CB required leagues.

Pick 21 – Indianapolis Colts: Samuel Cosmi (OT – Texas)

With the Colts investing in Carson Wentz, head coach Frank Reich will remember how Wentz played when he had a healthy offensive line. The Colts have been adding a lot of depth pieces to the offensive line, but do not have a left tackle that I think they would be happy starting after Anthony Castonzo’s retirement this offseason. There could be a number of offensive tackles, but I will go with Cosmi here. Keeping Wentz healthy to see if he can find his prior level of productivity should be a top priority for the Colts.

Pick 22 – Tennessee Titans: Greg Newsome II (CB – Northwestern)

Newsome is a highly touted CB that has been rising on draft boards lately. The Titans have done well to boost their pass rush, linebackers and defensive line this offseason, but they still have a need at cornerback. Newsome is another athletic, aggressive cornerback that would fit well next to 2021 second round pick Kristian Fulton.

Pick 23 – New York Jets: Teven Jenkins (OL – Oklahoma State)

Jenkins could play as a tackle in the future, but is also able to start inside at guard where the Jets need to get better. Whether they keep Darnold, or draft a QB like Wilson, better protection is a must. Running back is another big need for them, but I see better value there for this team early in the second round if they decide to draft one early. This pick would be a boost to Tevin Coleman or whomever they start at running back this year.

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Pick 24 – Pittsburgh Steelers: Najee Harris (RB – Alabama)

I like this running back class a lot, but we have seen NFL teams shy away from taking running backs in the first round as often as the used to; three were in the 1st in 2018, one in 2019 and one in 2020. Pittsburgh clearly needs a running back to help them as they try to run it back with Ben Roethlisberger, and I feel Harris fits great here. It would also be a great fantasy fit, as he would have RB1 potential in this offense if used as a workhorse out of the gate and lock him in as a top 2 pick in non-super flex fantasy drafts.

Pick 25 – Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevon Moehrig (S – TCU)

I will admit that I like this pick the least. I think Moehrig goes in the first round, and the Jaguars do need safety help, but after signing Rayshawn Jenkins to a big contract, and re-signing Josh Jones, I do not think it is their biggest need. That said, Moehrig can play all over their secondary and is a very nice long-term piece. If he does go to a situation and starts right away, he could have value as a DB2 in his first year.

Pick 26 – Cleveland Browns: Jayson Oweh (EDGE – Penn State)

The Browns need to add pass rushing help to Myles Garrett. Takk McKinley was only signed to a one year deal, and coming off the bench for a year would give Jayson a chance to focus on pass rushing before potentially becoming a starter next year. Jayson did not have any sacks in 2020 in the 7 games he played, but he got close a lot and has all the tools you want in an edge rusher. Playing on the same defensive line as Garrett would be great for his long term dynasty value.

Pick 27 – Baltimore Ravens: Gregory Rousseau (EDGE – Miami)

Rousseau is often talked about as a much higher pick, so he may not fall this far, but I like him in this spot and think he will fall a lot farther than some of us think. Going to Baltimore would not give him immediate starter value in IDP leagues, as it is likely he would just serve as a situational rusher, but I think that is best for him. He has a high ceiling, but a very low floor and being forced to start as a full time player would be setting him up to fail, in my opinion. His ceiling will have some team draft him in the first round next month.

Pick 28 – New Orleans Saints: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB – Notre Dame)

The Saints suddenly seem to have a lot of needs, and cornerback is a glaring hole with Marshon Lattimore’s recent legal troubles. Linebacker is another big hole though, and I like what is available here at linebacker better than what we have left. Jeremiah would add an athletic element they sorely need. They have nothing proven outside of Demario Davis, as Zach Baun played little as a rookie last year, and Craig Robertson is a replacement level player. If Jeremiah starts for the Saints this year he would be in a great position for IDP production going forward.

Pick 29- Green Bay Packers: Rondale Moore (WR – Purdue)

I think this would be a great match for both the Packers and Moore, so it likely will not happen. I do believe the Packers need to draft a wide receiver, and I really like Moore despite how divisive he is within the fantasy community. I see Moore as a dynamic wide receiver in the NFL going forward, and being able to be opposite of Davante Adams with Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback would be a great way to start his NFL (and fantasy football) career.

Pick 30 – Buffalo Bills: Carlos Basham Jr (DL – Wake Forest)

Getting the defensive line help to push for a Super Bowl birth is one of the few needs for Buffalo. Trent Murphy is 30 and best suited as a back-up, Jerry Hughes will be 33, and Mario Addison will be 34 next season. Adding a well rounded pass rusher to this defensive front makes a lot of sense to me. This would likely not bring a lot of immediate fantasy football value, but I love this pick a couple years from now. I know they drafted AJ Epenesa last year in the second round, but you can’t have too many pass rushers in today’s NFL.

Pick 31 – Kansas City Chiefs: Jalen Mayfield (OL – Michigan)

Despite signing Joe Thuney the Chiefs still need offensive line help. Mayfield has experience going against a number of NFL level defensive linemen and has the athleticism the Chiefs seem to like in their offensive linemen. He could potentially play right or left tackle for them, and while there are a number of tackles you could put here, anything that helps Patrick Mahomes’ protection is a good thing.

Pick 32 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Christian Barmore (DL – Alabama)

Barmore is a young, high upside player that can fit multiple defensive fronts. In Tampa Bay he would have a chance to learn from a veteran defensive line and set of pass rushers. He is far from a finished product, but playing behind Ndamukong Suh for at least a year would do him well before he is put into the starting lineup next to Vita Vea.

Thank you for reading my 2021 NFL Mock Draft: Version 1

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