In our 2021 divisional previews, we are going to take a look at all the players in the division and based on their current standard redraft ADP over at our friends at Fantasy Pros, help you see who’s risky and who’s worth the risk! As always if you have questions you can find us over on Twitter, Facebook or our growing Discord community!
2021 Divisional Preview: Houston Texans
We are still at the same point today as we were when the Deshaun Watson news dropped–no one’s truly in the know as to what’s really going to happen with him and the Texans. If you look at ADP though, the community’s definitely on the side of caution with him, as he’s currently QB17, and though he’s a top quarterback, he is a big risk this season. Watson finished as a top 5 fantasy QB last year, and that was with just as weak a cast of characters, so I’m not concerned about his production if he’s leading the team.
It appears as though David Johnson’s the lead dog in a very aging backfield. He’s joined by Phillip Lindsay, Mark Ingram and Rex Burkhead as the guys that appear to be the ones in line for the most touches. Another factor in determining this is new head coach David Culley and the system he will bring, as he was the passing game coordinator from Baltimore most recently. That shouldn’t cause you to be extremely concerned, though a passing game coordinator for a running team does seem like a strange promotion for sure. So when trying to project fantasy value for the running backs, it’s more of a wait and see sadly, because this team may want to use all the running backs to help set up the passing game. That being said, in your fantasy drafts David Johnson should outperform his ADP (RB36)
They Texans have plenty of talent at WR. Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins, Brevin Jordan and Randall Cobb are all more than capable of allowing this team to air it out if need be. Cooks is coming in at WR41 and WILL outperform that with the fact that he has 5 of his 7 seasons with over 100 targets.
Outside of Watson, Johnson and Cooks, you really have to wait longer in your drafts to take a chance on anyone else on this roster. From the tight end perspective, you should just leave em’ for everyone else, as this group is not going to give much fantasy relevance at this time. Jordan Akins was drafted highly and has a pretty solid catch rate, but hasn’t gotten as many targets to make him fantasy relevant. Brevin Jordan dropped in the draft for a few reasons, but either way tight ends take time to develop, so steer clear as much as I’m a Jordan truther.
2021 Divisional Preview: Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are in an interesting situation, and the fantasy relevance of them all revolves around newly acquired quarterback Carson Wentz. Being reunited with Frank Reich will make a big difference, as Wentz enjoyed his most success with Reich, and he knows how best to utilize Wentz in that offense. Currently the ADP on Wentz is QB20 in redraft ADP on Fantasy Pros. As a QB2 draft-wise, I’m taking that value proposition because he should outperform that pretty easily.
At running back, Jonathan Taylor being RB6 ADP-wise is not something I’m jumping on. They have plenty of talented RBs they can use, with Taylor joined by Marlon Mack (who pre-injury was the starter) Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins. Taylor’s probably more of a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside, and the rest are depth dart throws as Hines is a guy that will have a few huge games, but if we are being honest, he’s rarely starting on your fantasy team when those huge games are happening!
At wide receiver, they have some fun fantasy options, that should also outperform their ADP currently. TY Hilton (WR48) is still the #1 but he is currently being drafted after Michael Pittman Jr. (WR45), though they are so close that it’s not a big deal which one you go with. Both could easily end the year in WR2 range (13-30 ish honestly). The Colts have a strong defense and if the run game thrives and they can control the clock, it may not be a high passing offense every week.
Behind them are a bunch of depth plays in Parris Campbell (often injured up to this point in his career), Zach Pascal, Dezmon Patmon, JJ Nelson and 7th rounder Mike Strachan. Steer clear unless injuries occur, as Hilton and Pittman are it at wideout at the present time.
Tight end is a murky mess with this team. Jack Doyle should be the #1 option but Mo Alie-Cox is a more athletic receiving tight end and could be in on just as many targets as Doyle. In 2020, Cox had 8 more targets than Doyle, so either way you are looking at depth tight ends here, so another look elsewhere would be best in my mind.
2021 Divisional Preview: Jacksonville Jaguars
Out is the Stache-having, denim-wearing, Gardner Minshew and in is the golden-haired, golden-armed Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence currently has an ADP of QB14–a QB2 with QB1 upside in fantasy is fair value for him–and I’d be OK targeting him in the middle of your redrafts. We don’t know exactly what we’re getting into with the Jaguars offense with a new head coach and staff, especially with it being a guy coming up from the college ranks.
At running back, don’t sleep on James Robinson as a viable option, as he showed in 2020 he has the stuff and should be just as involved as they get Trevor up to speed in the NFL. He’s currently at RB22 and that’s great value for a guy that could hit high-end RB2 numbers on the regular this season. Travis Etienne will most certainly be involved in this offense and could be more the pass-catcher to the power back of Robinson, though anything’s possible with this team. With Etienne as RB27 currently, both have good value propositions and should be targeted in the middle of your redrafts.
I did an article recently talking about the Jags wide receiver group. Take a look here and it’ll give you a deeper dive into what I think on this group. DJ Chark in theory is the #1, with Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault closely behind, but the question is more around target share and how many targets will there really be to go around.
I don’t imagine in year one having 3 viable 100+ target wideouts on this team, so the guess as to who’s the top target getter more so comes down to who does Trevor trust when the action begins. Chark comes in at WR31, Shenault at WR47 and Jones at WR49. With Jones’ history with Bevell and just being a super talented wideout, I’d target him for the best return on investment!
Much like the other teams in the South we’ve been talking about, there’s not much to see here at tight end as the projected depth chart is Chris Manhertz, Luke Farrell and James O’Shaughnessy as the top options. There’s no one to draft currently, and if you are taking a flyer, Farrell at least was recruited by Urban Meyer at Ohio State.
2021 Divisional Preview: Tennessee Titans
Here’s where there’s plenty of fantasy gold in this division! Ryan Tannehill has found his place and been extremely fantasy-relevant since taking over the top spot on the depth chart. He’s currently sitting as QB11 in ADP and finished inside the top 10 fantasy QB’s in 2020, so I’d be happy to have him as my top QB in your leagues this year. Running back is very similar as Derrick Henry continues to dominate fantasy leagues and could definitely do so again in 2021.
The concern you’ll have with Henry is now you’ve had two straight 300+ touch seasons, and he should easily pass that mark again this year, so as long as it hasn’t done too much damage to the 27 year old’s back, his ADP of RB3 should be more than attainable!
At wideout, we know AJ Brown’s the real deal, and his 60%+ catch rate will come in handy as I expect him to surpass 100 targets again in 2021. Julio Jones will be the interesting piece in the equation because AJ Brown at WR6 is a hefty price, but if you can get Julio, who’s ADP is WR13, and get a guy who’s going to get around 100 touches but at a much cheaper price, do you do it and target RB where you’d draft AJ? That’s the question I’ve been trying to answer, as there are tons of talented WRs to choose from but the drop off from the elite RBs comes much quicker.
At tight end, Anthony Firkser is the man for them with Jonnu Smith in New England, and I’m confident he can be at least a nice TE2 who could be a back end TE1 pretty easily. Jonnu had 65 targets to go with Firkser’s 53 in 2020, so split the different and he gets somewhere in the neighborhood of 85 targets which easily gets him in mid TE2 range (85 targets would get him inside the top 10 tight ends, when it comes to targets based on 2020 numbers).
2021 Divisional Preview: Thanks For Stopping By!
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