2020 Rookie Fantasy Tracker Week 11
The leap from college football to the NFL is not easy by any stretch of the imagination. While some positions, like running back, have easier transitions, all rookies have to adjust to facing bigger, faster, and stronger opponents. On top of that, they also have to learn a new playbook and system that is likely different from the one they were used to in college.
The preseason is typically their chance to adapt and get used to the next level of play before the real season begins. Needless to say, an offseason with no field time until August, and no preseason will cut significantly into the much needed experience these rookies will acquire. Expect the rookies, even the so called “can’t miss” guys, to start off slower than their fantasy managers are hoping for.
The 2020 Fantasy Rookie Tracker follows the fantasy production of the 2020 Rookie class and compares their results to the RotoHeat team’s consensus Dynasty Rookie Rankings. In the initial installment of this season long series, I take a look at the Top-20 ranked, list their Week 1 projection, and give you my thoughts on their match-up. As the season progresses, the rookies will be re-ranked based on their year-to-date performance. We then review their previous week and take a look at the week to come as we follow this draft class that comes with so much hype and promise.
Top 20 Rookies
Justin Herbert – QB Los Angeles Chargers
RotoHeat Rookie Ranking: 18
Current Rank: 1
Week 10 Projection: 20.50
Week 10 Actual: 21.48
Season to Date Actual: 196.92
Weekly Average: 24.62
Week 11 Projection: 22.40
Week 10, seemed liked a down week for Justin Herbert. The reason it did was because it was. Herbert failed to throw for over 200 yards for first time all season. In fact it was just the 4th time he has failed to throw for 300. His fantasy day was saved by a passing score to Keenan Allena and his own rushing TD. Herbert still averages over 24 points a start and will remain a QB1 in the coming weeks.
Joe Burrow – QB Cincinnati Bengals
RotoHeat Rookie Ranking: 12
Current Rank: 2
Week 10 Projection: 16.30
Week 10 Actual: 12.52
Season to Date Actual: 167.40
Weekly Average: 18.60
Week 11 Projection: 16.70
Joe Burrow had to deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers top defense in Week 10, and Mother Nature showed up to make it just a little more difficult. All things considered 21 of 40 for 213 yards and a touchdown was a decent day. Things will get better for Burrow in the coming weeks, with Washington and the New York Giants the next two on tap.
James Robinson – RB Jacksonville Jaguars
RotoHeat Rookie Ranking: 31
Current Rank: 3
Week 10 Projection: 19.10
Week 10 Actual: 13.20
Season to Date Actual: 162.70
Weekly Average: 18.08
Week 11 Projection: 14.70
James Robinson keeps getting touches and he is tuning them into fantasy points. Robinson had 25 touches this week in horrible weather in Green Bay generated 112 total yards and 19.10 PPR points. The touchdown is the missing link for Robinson as he now has scored 7 times on 184 touches. As this season continues to unfold, its going to get more difficult for Robinson and the Jaguars rushing attack. It all starts in Week 11 against the Steelers. Volume should keep Robinson is the RB2 range the rest of the season, but if you are thinking of selling the time is now.
Chase Claypool – WR Pittsburgh Steelers
RotoHeat Rookie Ranking: 20
Current Rank: 4
Week 10 Projection: 14.80
Week 10 Actual: 21.30
Season to Date Actual: 139.20
Weekly Average: 15.47
Week 11 Projection: 14.80
Chase Claypool is the real deal. He has been given the nickname of Mapletron and as a fellow Canadian, I love it. Claypool has overcome early season inconsistencies to become a reliable week in week out starter for your Fantasy team. In nine weeks he sits with 500 receiving yards and nine total touchdowns. He enters Week 11 as the top scoring rookie WR, and is WR17 overall. Mapletron is likely to see his touchdown efficiency regress in the final 7 games of the season. Week 11 however in a match-up with the Jacksonville Jaguars I would be confidently starting Claypool.
Justin Jefferson – WR Minnesota Vikings
RotoHeat Rookie Ranking: 6
Current Rank: 5
Week 10 Projection: 14.40
Week 10 Actual: 21.50
Season to Date Actual: 138.20
Weekly Average: 15.36
Week 11 Projection: 13.60
Justin Jefferson is special, his route running is in a word sick. In Week 10, Jefferson hauled in 8 of 10 targets for 135 yards. He has gone over 100 receiving yards in 4 of the Vikings 9 games and has a 78% catch rate season to date. A WR that gains separation with above average route running combined with the accuracy of QB Kirk Cousins makes Jefferson a WR that you can start with comfort. The Vikings get the Cowboys, Panthers, and Jaguars in the next three weeks. Start this impressive rookie with confidence.
Antonio Gibson – RB Washington Football Team
RotoHeat Rookie Ranking: 19
Current Rank: 6
Week 10 Projection: 15.50
Week 10 Actual: 22.50
Season to Date Total: 127.80
Weekly Average: 14.20
Week 11 Projection: 15.20
Antonio Gibson has been producing like a RB2 since Week 7, despite the increased role of RB JD McKissic. Gibson took advantage of a giving matchup in Detroit turning 17 touches into 65 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Not every week will be like this one, if Gibson fails to score he will be a fringe flex play. The next two weeks against Cincinnati and Dallas however are mouth-watering
D’Andre Swift – RB Detroit Lions
RotoHeat Rookie Ranking: 5
Current Rank: 7
Week 10 Projection: 13.90
Week 10 Actual: 25.90
Season to Date Actual: 127.60
Weekly Average: 14.18
Week 11 Projection: 16.50
D’Andre Swift is the best running back on the Lions roster. He might be the best running back in this 2020 draft class. The Lions have finally turned to the rookie back to lead their attack. In the last two weeks, Swift has 18.5 touches, 123 yards and he has scored once. His 38.60 PPR points in Week 9 & 10 are 4th best among all RBs. Give Swift the ball and all will be fine.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire – RB Kansas City Chiefs
RotoHeat Rookie Ranking: 2
Current Rank: 8
Week 10 Projection: Bye Week
Week 10 Actual: Bye Week
Season to Date Actual: 127.00
Weekly Average: 14.11
Week 11 Projection: 13.40
Clyde Edwards-Helaire and the high profile Kansas City Chiefs offense were off this week. CEH in nine starts has amassed 810 yards and 3 scores on his 154 touches. He has finished with double digit fantasy points in 8 of his 9 outings. His ADP this season makes his production thus far feel like a disappointment. The reality is he is a rookie, in a great offense and sits at RB14. You could do a lot worse.
Tee Higgins – WR Cincinnati Bengals
RotoHeat Rookie Ranking: 10
Current Rank: 9
Week 10 Projection: 11.30
Week 10 Actual: 22.50
Season to Date Actual: 125.10
Weekly Average: 13.90
Week 11 Projection: 14.20
Tee Higgins has become the Cincinnati Bengals No.2 WR and he is making a case to be the team’s No.1. Higgins forced John Ross to the press box and has blown by A.J. Green in terms of relevance in the Bengals offense. Higgins averaged 3.25 PPR points in the first two weeks of the season and 16.94 (4th best) ever since. Higgins is a major part of this offense and this impressive rookie WR class. Start him as a WR2 the rest of the way with confidence.
CeeDee Lamb – WR Dallas Cowboys
RotoHeat Rookie Ranking: 3
Current Rank: 10
Week 10 Projection: Bye Week
Week 10 Actual: Bye Week
Season to Date Actual: 122.80
Weekly Average: 13.64
Week 11 Projection: 12.20
CeeDee Lamb and the Dallas Cowboys were on bye in Week 10. Lamb the rest of his mates return in Week 11 to face the Minnesota Vikings in what should be a high scoring contest. Lamb bounced back in Week 9 with Garrett Gilbert under center. After consecutive weeks with a total of 8.70 PPR points, Lamb with posted 15.10 versus the Pittsburgh Steelers. Hopefully that is a sign of good things to come, regardless of the starting QB.
Brandon Aiyuk – WR San Francisco 49ers
RotoHeat Rookie Ranking: 14
Current Rank: 11
Week 10 Projection: 10.60
Week 10 Actual: 19.70
Season to Date Actual: 115.70
Weekly Average: 14.46
Week 11 Projection: Bye Week
Despite early season injury and a stint on the Covid IR list, Brandon Aiyuk is having himself a nice rookie campaign. Injuries to Deebo Samuel and George Kittle have expedited Aiyuk’s importance in the offense and he has responded. A week after being forced to the sidelines as part of Covid protocol. Aiyuk led the Niners in targets with 14. He hauled in 7 for 75 yards and scored in the 27-13 loss. He sits at 11th in rookie scoring and 7th in average points per game. Niners are on bye in Week 11. When they return in Week 12 to face the Los Angeles Rams Aiyuk should be in the flex conversation.
Jonathan Taylor – RB Indianapolis Colts
RotoHeat Rookie Ranking: 1
Current Rank: 12
Week 10 Projection: 12.30
Week 10 Actual: 5.70
Season to Date Actual: 107.10
Weekly Average: 11.90
Week 11 Projection: 10.10
It has been frustrating of late having Jonathan Taylor on your Fantasy roster. The problem is where you likely drafted him, compels his Fantasy Managers to feel the need to start him. Week 10 was Taylor’s third straight under 10 PPR points, and he has averaged 6.73 points. During the first 5 weeks of the season he was averaging more than double with 14.28. Nyheim Hines and to a lesser extent Jordan Wilkins are a legit concern for Taylor’s projected volume. You simply can’t start him going forward but likely have to. Hopefully in Week 11 in a great matchup versus the Packers he gets touches.
Jerry Jeudy – WR Denver Broncos
RotoHeat Rookie Ranking: 6
Current Rank: 13
Week 10 Projection: 13.60
Week 10 Actual: 10.80
Season to Date: 101.20
Weekly Average: 11.24
Week 11 Projection: 12.50
In Week 10, Jerry Jeudy had a season high 14 targets, 7 catches, and 125 receiving yards. In Week 11 versus the Las Vegas Raiders, Jeudy saw 8 targets that he turned into 4 catches for 68 yards. Over the past three weeks Jeudy has totaled 32 targets, 15 catches, 266 yards and a touchdown. Jeudy is another excellent route runner, perhaps the best in this draft class. He is suffering from below QB play from Drew Lock. Lock on the season has a completion percentage of 55%. In Week 11 facing the revamped Miami Dolphins defense, Jeudy is a flex play at best.
Darnell Mooney – WR Chicago Bears
RotoHeat Rookie Ranking: NR
Current Rank: 14
Week 10 Projection: 11.30
Week 10 Actual: 2.30
Season to Date Actual: 79.80
Weekly Average: 7.98
Week 11 Projection: Bye Week
Darnell Mooney has been a nice find for his Fantasy Managers. Likely drafted in round 5 or later of your rookie drafts (if at all), Mooney averaging nearly 8 PPR points a game is found money. The challenge is you can’t start him without the use of a crystal ball. He has one double digit game (17.90 Week 8) this season and without that game his weekly average drops to 6.88. The Bears head into the bye with more questions at QB yet again. All you can do with Mooney is stash him on your Dynasty bench and hope that one day the Bears upgrade at the QB position. He should not be owned in any Redraft league smaller than 18 teams.
Laviska Shenault Jr. – WR Jacksonville Jaguars
RotoHeat Rookie Ranking: 13
Current Rank: 15
Week 10 Projection: 0 – Inactive
Week 10 Actual: 0 – Inactive
Season to Date Actual: 73.70
Weekly Average: 9.21
Week 11 Projection: 11.40
Laviska Shenault laid an egg in Week 9, and missed Week 10 with a hamstring injury. Health is the number one concern for every Laviska Shenault fantasy manager, talent is not. He missed significant time in college with a long list of injuries. He has a chance to return in Week 11 to face the Steelers. Missing time as a a rookie is never good, especially when you are starting a rookie QB. Shenault is behind D.J. Chark and Keelan Cole on the Jags depth chart and is quickly being passed by Chris Conley as well. Laviska is another player to stash on your bench in Dynasty and drop in Redraft.
J.K. Dobbins – RB Baltimore Ravens
RotoHeat Rookie Ranking: 4
Current Rank: 16
Week 10 Projection: 12.20
Week 10 Actual: 2.40
Season to Date Actual: 68.80
Weekly Average: 7.42
Week 11 Projection: 10.50
Mark Ingram retuned to the Ravens backfield in Week 10, and J.K. Dobbins returned to mediocrity as a result. In the previous two contests Dobbins averaged 15 touches and 78 yards. Against the Patriots it was 6 touches and 14 yards. His usage is frustrating and also not going to change as long as the Ravens are healthy at RB. In Week 11 and 12 versus the Titans and Steelers Dobbins is an easy sit. Perhaps in week 13 when the Ravens host the Cowboys you can plug him in as a flex.
Joshua Kelley – RB Los Angeles Chargers
RotoHeat Rookie Ranking: 27
Current Rank: 17
Week 10 Projection: 8.50
Week 10 Actual: 2.10
Season to Date Actual: 66.40
Weekly Average: 7.38
Week 11 Projection: 7.20
The Austin Ekeler injury should have presented Joshua Kelley with the opportunity to produce. The injury to Justin Jackson should have presented Joshua Kelley the ability to be a starting running back. The reality, Kelley has been passed over by Troymaine Pope and Kalen Ballage. Kelley is a stash that you simply cannot start unless you are the most desperate of Fantasy Managers. Kelley is averaging 13 touches, 50 yards a game this season despite an opportunity served to him on a silver platter.
Gabriel Davis – WR Buffalo Bills
RotoHeat Rookie Ranking: 38
Current Rank: 18
Week 10 Projection: 6.60
Week 10 Actual: 0.00
Season to Date Actual: 64.50
Weekly Average: 6.45
Week 11 Projection: Bye Week
Gabriel Davis had his best game off the 2020 season in Week 5 when he was targeted 9 times and tuned in 58 yards on 5 receptions. Since that contest he has seen 14 targets, has 6 catches and 81 yards. When John Brown is out of the lineup, Davis sees the field. When Brown is active he does not. John Brown rolled his ankle in Week 10, so it is possible you see more of Gabriel Davis in Week 12 coming off the bye. Davis is another WR to stash in Dynasty and nothing more.
Zack Moss – RB Buffalo Bills
RotoHeat Rookie Ranking: 24
Current Rank: 19
Week 10 Projection: 10.40
Week 10 Actual: 2.70
Season to Date Actual: 62.20
Weekly Average: 8.89
Week 11 Projection: Bye Week
Zack Moss rushed seven times for 20 yards in Buffalo’s Week 10 loss to Arizona. He also saw two targets for -3 receiving yards. Moss hasn’t found the end zone in two straight games but has quietly out-carried (16-6) and out-touched (19-10) teammate Devin Singletary in that stint. This backfield’s lack of production can be attributed to heavy pass play calling of late. In the past two weeks the Bills have called 87 pass plays compared to 22 running plays. Moss is still the player to roster for re-draft leagues over Singletary for the rest of the year, but unless he scores you’ll be disappointed that you started him.
KJ Hamler – WR Denver Broncos
RotoHeat Rookie Ranking:
Current Rank: 20
Week 10 Projection: 7.20
Week 10 Actual: 9.00
Season to Date Actual: 54.20
Weekly Average: 7.74
Week 11 Projection: 9.70
KJ Hamler caught 5-of-10 targets for 50 yards in the Broncos’ Week 10 loss to the Raiders. Hamler now has back-to-back games of 10 targets and he led Denver in targets this week. A second-round selection out of Penn State, Hamler is fighting Jerry Jeudy for the title of top pass-catcher in Denver. While Jeudy likely has the lead over Hamler going forward, Hamler is quietly shaping up to have an impressive second half of his rookie season. He may struggle to bring down some of Drew Lock’s errant passes but Hamler has cemented himself as a viable FLEX option in deeper leagues.
Thank you for reading 2020 Rookie Fantasy Tracker Week 11. Good luck in Week 11 everyone!
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