2020 Redraft Quarterback Rankings
Hello Heat Seekers welcome to episode 82 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast. I hope that everyone is doing well. Thanks for being here.
I am in the process of switching the podcast from more of a dynasty focus to a redraft focus. You may or may not have noticed that my rotoheat.com content has taken the same turn.
The podcast has a name change and soon a new looking logo. Its now Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast. I remain an avid dynasty participant and I will always have my 2 cents regarding everything dynasty. As we navigate through the calendar each year the offseason of this podcast will be very dynasty focused for obvious reason. The rookie content will be there and as we near the start of the season, we will become more redraft focused especially during the season.
So with that out of the way, today I am going to roll thru my 2020 Redraft Quarterback Rankings.
Of all the positions to rank, quarterback remains the most difficult. If given enough time, I can make a compelling argument for 20-23 of the leagues starting quarterbacks to be top 12 fantasy options. Lamar Jackson led all quarterbacks in fantasy points per game with 28.11. Tom Brady finished as QB12 with 271.68 points or 16.98 per game. In 2019 there were 22 quarterbacks that averaged 15.97 points per game or better. The position has never been tighter.
16. Ben Roethlisberger
When we last saw Ben Roethlisberger, he was walking off the field holding his right throwing arm midway through Week 2 versus the Seattle Seahawks. Big Ben underwent elbow surgery and was lost for the remainder of the season. In 2018, Big Ben finished as the QB3 averaging 21.3 points per game. Ben has different weapons than he did in 2018, most notably the absence of Antonio Brown. Juju Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson and James Washington make up the Steelers 3 WR sets, and newly signed TE Eric Ebron gives Ben a nice, big red zone target.
15. Daniel Jones
In 2019, Daniel Jones took a hold of the Giants starting QB role and finished the season at QB23 in 13 games played. His 17.46 points per game were 14th best among quarterbacks with 13 or more games played. Jones showed good and bad qualities in his rookie season. He threw for 336 yards and two touchdowns in the Giants come from behind victory over Tampa Bay in Week 3, and he also had a pair of 3 interception games versus New England and Green Bay. With the weapons Jones has in his offense, if he can improve his ball security from a year ago, (11 lost fumbles), and those weapons remain healthy, Jones will have a ceiling that may exceed this ranking in his sophomore season.
14. Baker Mayfield
The QB that was supposed to break out last year was Baker Mayfield. Not only did he not breakout, he regressed significantly. People that hate on Baker forget how bad of a coach Freddie Kitchens really was. The Browns have significantly upgraded their coaching staff, have a plethora of weapons on offense, and that was before they added Austin Hooper. Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry also got healthy. Baker will right the wrongs of 2019 in 2020
13. Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford had his 2019 season cut short due to a back injury. Stafford last appeared in Week 9, having played in eight games. At the time of his injury, he was QB6 with 171.56 fantasy points. Stafford was off to the best statistical start of his 11-year career and was on pace to finish the season with 4,998 passing yards, 38 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. That pace would have had him finish with 341.92 fantasy points (in 4 point/passing TD scoring) and a QB3 overall season. Back injuries are a tricky thing to deal with, especially for a player that gets hit as often as a quarterback. If Stafford stays healthy, he’s a top 12 QB in 2020.
2020 top 12
12. Carson Wentz
Wentz appeared in all of the Eagles 16 games last season for the second time in his 4 year career. He set a career high with 4,039 yards and his 27 touchdown passes were the second highest of his career. Injures hampered the Eagles in 2019, especially their wide receivers. In the last few weeks of the season, his top two wide receivers were an UDFA and a converted quarterback. Heading into 2020 with a revamped group of wide receivers led by highly touted rookie Jalen Reagor, two top pass-catching TE’s in Zach Ertz, and Dallas Goedert, and a talented pass catching running back in Miles Sanders, Wentz is poised to return to the top 12 once again.
11. Tom Brady
For the first time in 20 years, QB Tom Brady will pull on a non-Patriots uniform in 2020. Brady decided to take his talents to Tampa this year to join the likes of Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and OJ Howard. In addition, the Buccaneers traded for retired TE and former Patriot Rob Gronkowski. A season ago, Brady finished as QB12. Other than Julian Edleman, the Patriots were starved for pass-catching talent. In this Bruce Arians offense with these weapons, Brady, even at the rip old age 43, will be able to deliver yet another top 12 fantasy season.
10. Drew Brees
Drew Brees was limited to 11 games a season ago due to an injury to the thumb on his throwing hand. The five games missed were two more than he had missed since the start of the 2004 season. As a result, Brees finished 2019 as the QB28 with 228.8 points. His 20.8 points a game were tied for 8th with Russell Wilson. From the time Brees returned to his starting role in Week 8 until the end of the season he was fantasy’s QB5. The addition of Emmanuel Sanders to the lineup is an upgrade over Ted Ginn Jr. and Tre’Quan Smith, and gives Brees a dependable WR to target in addition to standout WR Michael Thomas. Jared Cook and Alvin Kamara round out the arsenal at Brees disposal. This may be Brees’ final season or it may not, but it will be yet another top 12 season.
9. Matt Ryan
Matt Ryan has finished as a top 12 scoring quarterback 6 times, including two top 2 finishes and a QB11 finish a year ago. Ryan enters 2020 in position to repeat his top 12 ways. He has two top weapons returning in Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, 3rd year WR Russell Gage showed promise late in 2019, and the Falcons added RB Todd Gurley to the backfield. Atlanta led the league in pass attempts in 2019 with 684 and were 5th in 2018 with 617. Expect the Falcons to continue to throw and throw often in 2020, and a result, I like Ryan to land within the top 12 once again.
8. Josh Allen
In his first two seasons, Josh Allen had a career completion percentage of 56.3%. Never underestimate the power of a rushing quarterback in fantasy football. In those same two seasons, Allen ran for a combined 1,141 yards and 17 touchdowns. Josh Allen finished last season as the 6th highest scoring quarterback in fantasy for 2019, and although I expect some regression in 2020, I believe that he will remain a top scoring fantasy quarterback. The addition of Stefon Diggs to the Bills dramatically improves the passing game, and the recent addition of Zach Moss to pair with Devin Singletary improves the running game. I see Allen throwing for more yards and running less as a result of these additions. He will see some regression in 2020 but remain a top 12 quarterback.
7. Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers had a down season in 2019 in terms of the standards he has set for himself. He finished last season with 4,002 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and only 4 interceptions. Those numbers were good enough for a QB10 season. Entering 2020, Aaron Rodgers will be motivated to prove that he is still an elite QB despite his organization’s decision to draft his replacement instead of needed reinforcements to the offense. I am betting on a determined Aaron Rodgers ten times out of ten.
6. Deshaun Watson
Deshaun Watson had been penciled in as my 3rd ranked quarterback without much thought prior to Bill O’Brien’s surprising trade of DeAndre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals. Watson is an incredibly talented quarterback, and in his three year career has finished as the QB26 (in 7 games), QB4, and QB5. Make no mistake, losing one of the games best pass catchers impacts your fantasy value, but Watson will get enough out of Will Fuller, Brandon Cooks, Randall Cobb, and his legs to remain a top 6 fantasy quarterback in 2020.
5. Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray finished last season as QB8 with 297.3 fantasy points. In addition, he won the Offensive Rookie of the Year and became one of just three signal-callers in NFL history to pass for 3,000 yards and run for 500 yards as a rookie. Murray is well-positioned to be even better in 2020. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins was a massive boost to the Arizona passing game, and Kliff Kingsbury’s offensive scheme lends itself well to big numbers from his quarterback.
Kingsbury, like Murray, was a rookie in 2019. I would expect an improvement from both and an even faster pace and more 4 WR sets. Kenyan Drake upgrades the backfield, and Murray can still take off and run the ball like a select few can. In each of the last two seasons, a second-year quarterback took the league by storm on his way to winning NFL MVP. Kyler Murray is going to give three-in-a-row a hell of a run in 2020.
4. Russell Wilson
The Seattle Seahawks have transitioned into one of the league’s most run-heavy offenses over the last two seasons, but there’s still plenty of value to be had in the passing game with this team. Russell Wilson is a perennial top fantasy quarterback. He is the only quarterback drafted since 2010 to have recorded a top 12 fantasy season in each year he has played.
In 8 years, the worst fantasy season Russell Wilson has had is a QB11 finish. Wilson has two talented wide receivers at his disposal in Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. The duo combined for 1,957 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns in 2019. Chris Carson is set to return and Greg Olsen arrives to solidify the team’s TE position and provide another red zone target. Wilson always has his legs to fall back upon in times of need as well.
3. Dak Prescott
Prior to the NFL draft, I had Dak Prescott projected to be the fifth-best QB in fantasy football in 2020. I expected him to experience some regression from 2019 where he finished as the second highest scoring QB. When the Cowboys selected Oklahoma WR CeeDee Lamb to replace the departed Randall Cobb and the Texans traded DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona, Dak landed here at 3.
Lamb provides Dak and the Cowboys with a dynamic run-after-the-catch talent vastly superior to what Cobb bought to the table. Michael Gallup is a year more experienced, and Amari Cooper re-signed with the club this offseason. In addition to all those weapons, Dak still has Ezekiel Elliott to lean on out of the backfield as well. Dallas had the 6th highest scoring offense in football in 2019 and recorded the second most total yards on offense. Prescott will be a top-tier fantasy quarterback in 2020 provided he gets this contract situation sorted out.
2. Lamar Jackson
Last season’s MVP, Lamar Jackson, led all quarterbacks in fantasy scoring with an outstanding 421.68 fantasy points. Jackson set a single season rushing record for quarterbacks with 1,206 rushing yards. He added 3,127 passing yards, 36 passing touchdowns and 7 rushing touchdowns.
In 2020, I expect Jackson to have another top fantasy finish. I also expect him to regress considerably. Jackson simply won’t run as often, and the addition of J.K. Dobbins to pair with Mark Ingram will see to that. In addition, he won’t throw a touchdown pass on every 9% of his attempts again in 2020, or likely ever again for that matter. Make no mistake about it, Lamar Jackson, regression or not, is an elite fantasy quarterback and he belongs in the 2nd spot.
The 2018 MVP is your top ranked QB in 2020. I spoke often about the regression Patrick Mahomes would face in 2019. When you are coming off a 5,097 yard, 50 touchdown season, regression is inevitable. Here’s the thing–he’s still very good. His 5.4 percent touchdown rate is one that is easily sustainable and one he can even improve on as he continues to grow in his career.
Over the last two years, he’s produced QB1 numbers in 21-of-29 games where he’s played the entire game. That’s a ridiculous 72.4 percent rate. To give an idea as to how crazy that is, the highest career rate outside of him since 2000 is 63.2 percent. He should be the #1 quarterback off the board. If you want to be the Patrick Mahomes owner in 2020, you should be prepared to draft him towards the back end of round two or the start of round 3.
That’s going to do it for this episode. Thank you for listening to my 2020 Redraft Quarterback Rankings.
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I’ll be back with episode 83 next week.
Stay safe, and healthy Heat Seekers.