Well, week 10 wasn’t my finest hour when it comes to my start and sit recommendations. We had some hits, like Lamar Jackson, Christian Kirk, and Jamison Crowder. We also had some misses most notably calling Derrick Henry a bust in week 10. My RB suggestions in general stunk last week.
It’s time to move forward and learn from our mistakes, we enter week 11 and we need some wins to push for the playoffs. There are 4 teams on bye this week; Green Bay, NY Giants, Seattle, and Tennessee.
Here is a rundown of some of the key players that you won’t have at your disposal this week and will want to make sure to leave out of your lineup: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Saquon Barkley, Golden Tate, Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, Chris Carson, Tyler Lockett and Derrick Henry. Good news is I won’t be wrong about Derrick Henry this week!
1. Start of the Week:
Josh Jacobs Oakland Raiders RB10 150.30 PPR Fantasy Points
I have been extremely surprised and pleased with the play and the productivity season to date from Josh Jacobs. He is fitting into John Gruden’s offense like a glove. The Raiders enter week 11 with the 8th most prolific rushing game in the league and they line up against a Cincinnati Bengals defense that ranks 30th against the run. The Bengals have allowed on average this season 29.16 points to their opposing running game. In nine games Cincinnati has given up 1832 rushing yards and surrendered 14 touchdowns on the ground. Jacobs is averaging 16.70 PPR points a game in his rookie season. His high water mark came (29.30) came in week 5 vs. Chicago and his low (4.4) came in week 3 against the Minnesota Vikings. I would plan on Jacobs topping the 20 point plateau this week.
Kyle Allen Carolina Panthers QB27 90.32 Fantasy Points
I was quite impressed with Allen’s ability to move the football in less than ideal conditions this past Sunday in Green Bay. Allen went over 300 passing yards for the first time in his career. This week he matches up against the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta was surprisingly good on defense coming out of their bye week in New Orleans. I don’t expect that to be the case this week. Look for the Panthers to establish the run with Christian McCaffrey which in turn will open up the passing game. Atlanta is allowing 260.8 yards passing season to date and they rank 23rd against the pass. They also allow the 5th most fantasy points to the quarterback position (22.5). I like Allen to exceed 20 fantasy points in standard 4 point/passing TD scoring leagues this week.
Jimmy Garoppolo QB21 135.46 Fantasy Points
I pegged Jimmy G as a start last week, and as I noted the call was a little risky. In the end Jimmy ended up with 11.02 fantasy points and finished as QB22 on the week. Not what I was expecting or looking for. He lands here once again due to this juicy matchup with the Arizona Cardinals. In week 9, against the Cardinals in Arizona, Garoppolo was 28/37 with 317 yards and 4 TD passes. Arizona remains the most accommodating team in terms of fantasy points to the QB position, allowing 25.7 points per game. I am starting Jimmy with confidence and if he has Emmanuel Sanders and George Kittle at his disposal he likely would be start of the week material.
Phillip Rivers Los Angeles Chargers QB14 157.04 Fantasy Points
I have this ongoing debate with a few members of my inner circle regarding Rivers’ Hall of Fame induction possibility. I believe he is a first ballot Hall of Fame talent and they do not. What we do agree on is he is playing the worst football of his career. The offensive line is a mess in Los Angles and it would appear since the change at Offensive Coordinator the run game is the preference. Add to this that the Chiefs have basically owned Rivers. In 27 games dating back to 2006, Rivers has averaged a line of 21/33 254 yards 1 TD and 1 INT. In most 4 point per passing league scoring that stat line equates to 13 fantasy points. Keep in mind a majority of these games were played when Rivers was good. That is no longer the case and he is an easy sit this week.
Carson Wentz Philadelphia Eagles QB15 156.80
Wentz comes in off a bye to face the best defense in the league versus the opposing QB (9.7 points per game). Having a week to prepare for your opponent is definitely an advantage. The problem here for Wentz and the Eagles is the New England Patriots were also on bye and Bill Belichick has a week to prepare as well. Since Bill Belichick took the reign as Patriots head coach in 2000, the Patriots have a .737 win percentage in the game directly following a bye week, with a 14-5 overall record. Wentz is in for a long day on Sunday and I would prefer to leave him on my bench as a result.
Ryan Finley Cincinnati Bengals QB49 9.88 points
I mean why not? Typically I don’t get overly excited about a starting QB with 1 game on his resume. Especially after his debut yielded a stat line of 16/30 167 yards with a TD and a pick. So what am I thinking here? Well Finley and his Bengals face the Oakland Raiders this week, and the Raiders have been nice to opposing QB’s this season. Oakland is giving up 23.6 fantasy points on average to the other teams QB this season. I wouldn’t anticipate that Finley scores 23.6 fantasy points but I do expect him to be throwing 35+ times here and he should see some success. It’s called a sleeper for a reason.
Baker Mayfield Cleveland Browns QB23 125.64 Fantasy Points
I am going back to the well one more time here with Baker. I noted last week, entering the season I was one of the highest on Baker Mayfield, if not the highest here at RotoHeat. I tagged Baker as my bust last week, and in all honestly he wasn’t too bad. His 17.62 fantasy points landed him as the week’s QB13.
Would you believe that week 10 was his best fantasy producing game of the season? Well it was.
He faces the Steelers on a short week at home on Thursday. The Steelers since acquiring safety Minkah Fitzpatrick have been on fire and their defense is carrying them to the tune of 4 straight wins. The Steelers pass rush destroyed the weak Los Angeles Rams offensive line this past Sunday and I see no reason why they won’t do the same to this equally terrible offensive line in Cleveland. I do not see a scenario in which Baker can get to his seasonal average of 13.90 pints per game let alone surpass it.
3. Running Backs
Melvin Gordon Los Angeles Chargers RB38 82.10 PPR Fantasy Points
Melvin Gordon returned to the field in week 5 a week after ending his holdout. In week’s 5 through 8, the Chargers offense ran for a total of 142 yards averaging 35.5 yards per game. Prior to the start of week 9, LA made a change at Offensive Coordinator terminating Ken Whisenhunt.
In week’s 9 & 10 the Chargers have rushed for 305 yards or 152.5/game. In those two games Melvin Gordon has re-established himself as the Chargers primary ball carrier. Gordon is averaging 21 carries 94 yards and 1.5 touchdowns in those two games. If the Chargers want any chance of hanging with the Kansas City Chiefs this week, they need to run the football and control time of possession. Kansas City allows the most points to opposing running backs this season (31.5), and is fresh off a game in which they allowed 225 yards to the Tennessee Titans.
Marlon Mack Indianapolis Colts RB19 114.90 PPR Fantasy Points
The Colts are coming into week 11 off an embarrassing loss to the Miami Dolphins at home. They played that contest without their starting quarterback and their two top WR’s. This week they host a divisional rival, the Jacksonville Jaguars. I am banking on Jacoby Brissett being back under centre and the Colts to be pissed off after last week.
I see Mack getting a lot of work in this one and the Jags are beatable versus the run. They are allowing 26.4 points to the running back position (9th in the league). Mack is averaging only 12.67 PPR fantasy points a game this season, but this is a contest in which I believe he gets the work and finds the end zone, on more than one occasion.
Miles Sanders Philadelphia Eagles RB28 98.10 PPR Fantasy Points
For a lot of the same reasons I am sitting Carson Wentz this week is why I am also sitting Miles Sanders. The Patriots are not only the best team against opposing quarterbacks they are also the stingiest vs. the running back position (14.3 points/game). Sanders is an easy sit here, as is Jordan Howard if you were thinking of going in that direction
Kenyan Drake Arizona Cardinals RB33 92.60 PPR Fantasy Points
It’s another week and another week that I have Kenyan Drake as a sit. Two weeks ago against San Francisco was a miss and last week in Tampa I was bang on. Well Drake gets those 49ers that he shredded two weeks ago to the tune of 15 carries, 110 yards and a touchdown.
I am not certain what changes San Francisco 49ers Defensive Coordinator Robert Saleh has in mind for week 11, but I am certain that we will not see a repeat of Drake’s week 9 performance.
Brian Hill Atlanta Falcons RB70 27.50 PPR Fantasy Points
This one is all about opportunity. Devonta Freeman has a foot injury and Ito Smith is on IR. The backfield is all Brian Hill’s. In week 11 the Falcons head to Carolina to face the Panthers. Hill faces an opponent that is allowing 29 points a game to the running back positon (4th worse). Carolina over the past three weeks have given up 172 rushing yards per game on average, which exceeds their average yards allowed this season (137.9). You can run on Carolina and I would expect that the Falcons do that with Brian Hill.
Adrian Peterson Washington Redskins RB44 68.20 PPR Fantasy Points
So I will be the first to admit that selecting the RB44 on a terrible offensive team is a bit of a sandbag move here. I like most of the usual starting running backs this week and when searching for bust potential I just couldn’t get past AP. There is nothing really special about the matchup; the Redskins will run the ball a tonne and the Jets give up the 18th most points to opposing running backs (23.6 points per game). My gut tells me AP will struggle despite heavy volume. The Jets are sure to stack the box and force Dwayne Haskins to throw. This could also be the last time we see AP as a primary ball carrier. Darius Guice if he can stay healthy is going to assume that role very soon in Washington.
4. Wide Receivers
Ted Ginn Jr. WR75 57.40 PPR Fantasy Points
This one is all about the matchup. The Saints on the road are usually not an offense that I target. Combine the fact that the Saints somehow lost to Atlanta at home last week, with facing the worst defense in the league and boom it’s a match. Further to the matchup you have the league’s best run defense in Tampa begging Drew Brees to throw the football.
The obvious start here is Michael Thomas. The #1 overall WR is a must start regardless. I do like the residual this Sunday for the other Saints receivers. Ted Ginn is one of those receivers. As noted Tampa Bay is the worst team in the league in terms of yards and fantasy points by opposing wide receivers. Ginn is averaging 6.38 points per game. I’m anticipating a 4 catch 60 yard and a touchdown kinda game from Ginn here.
Curtis Samuel Carolina Panthers WR27 112.80 PPR Fantasy Points
Curtis Samuel was one of the most hyped wide receivers entering 2019. Some may feel he hasn’t delivered on the hype but I feel he has. He enters week 11 as WR27 on the season and he is accomplishing this with his backup quarterback. In a matchup at home against a Falcons defense that I expect Kyle Allen to expose, I am starting Curtis Samuel with confidence.
Alshon Jeffery WR44 93.50 PPR Fantasy Points
Alshon Jeffrey is hard to trust any week, but especially with the Eagles facing a Patriots defense only allowing 150 passing yards per game which is the second fewest in the NFL. As Jeffrey’s 36 receiving yards in Week 9 show, the Eagles receiver is best left on your bench against tough opponents.
Christian Kirk Arizona Cardinals WR29 111.20 PPR Fantasy Points
Christian Kirk had a strong Week 10, but I have concerns about the Cardinals receivers going against the Niners defense. I am also not a fan of chasing points. The Niners are 3rd best against the WR position this season allowing only 27.6 fantasy points per game, and 132 yards of passing. As a result, Kirk gets the week off in my lineups this week.
Kendrick Bourne San Francisco 49ers WR80 49.00 PPR Fantasy Points
Kendrick Bourne tends to make the most of his opportunities. With Emmanuel Sanders out with injury this past Monday, Bourne saw an increase in snaps and volume. Bourne caught 4 of his 8 targets for 42 yards and a touchdown on Monday. I have a sneaky feeling that against the welcoming Cardinals defense he should be afforded an opportunity to produce once again.
Odell Beckham Jr. Cleveland Browns WR26 113.00 PPR Fantasy Points
This one hurts the heart. I love OBJ, but he is stuck in a terrible situation. OBJ is averaging just under 9 targets per game and under 5 receptions. He has scored one touchdown this season. He did see a season high in targets last week with 12 and hopefully that is a sign of good things to come. The reality is this is a player that you cannot sit, and starting him is frustrating to say the least. This week the Browns face the Steelers. The Steelers D has been exceptional since the arrival of safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. I do expect Beckham to finish the season strong, but this is not going to be his week.
5. Tight End
Jared Cook New Orleans Saints TE24 57.20 PPR Fantasy Points
I am putting a lot of stock into the Saints bouncing back after a stunningly bad performance last week at home vs Atlanta. Honestly I can’t help myself. Cook was one of a few players that looked good for New Orleans last week and he appears to have successfully overcome his injury. Tampa Bay allows the second most fantasy points to opposing TE’s and this shapes up as a game where the Saints throw all day. Cook should benefit.
T.J. Hockenson Detroit Lions TE17 71.30 PPR Fantasy Points
The Dallas Cowboys enter week 11 with the 7th ranked overall defense and the 6th ranked in points allowed per game (18.9). Funny thing is I don’t think this defense is overly good. Where I do see certain vulnerability is against the TE. The Cowboys are third worst against the position allowing 16.1 points per game. The unfortunate loss of Matthew Stafford in the Lions offense thrusts Jeff Driskel into the spot light. I see Driskel attempting shorter passes to his TE in this one versus taking shots down the field to his wide outs.
Zach Ertz Philadelphia Eagles TE6 110.70 PPR Fantasy Points
Are you sensing a trend with the Eagles skilled positional players yet? Ertz snapped out of his slump in week 9 with a 25.30 point game against the Bears. His previous three weeks were all single digit outings and that is what I envision here against a defense that is number one against the TE position.
Eric Ebron Indianapolis Colts TE16 71.40 PPR Fantasy Points
I cannot for the life of me figure out the Indianapolis Colts. Are they the team that beat Houston and Kansas City on the road in consecutive weeks or are they the team that lost at home to Oakland and Miami? One thing that I think I have figured out, is to sit Eric Ebron this week. Ebron has been wildly inconsistent this season and facing a Jaguars team that is allowing the 5th least amount of fantasy points per game to the TE position (8.9), makes this an easy decision to sit him.
Tyler Eifert Cincinnati Bengals TE22 58.20 PPR Fantasy Points
If we are going to take a flyer on Ryan Finely this week, we might as well take a flyer on his tight end. I would be lying if I said there was any analytical or scientific data going into this pick. This is a hunch play pure and simple. The one thing going for Eifert and the Bengals is the Raiders inability to cover the opposing TE. The Raiders on the season are allowing 15.4 points to the TE position weekly and that is 4th worst in the league.
Mike Gesicki Miami Dolphins TE30 49.60 PPR Fantasy Points
Gesicki has been getting some hype recently with the increase in targets coinciding with the loss of WR Preston Williams. Well I am not buying any of it. Add to that a date with the Bills and TE Mike Gesecki should be in for a tough outing. The Bills are second best in the league against the position allowing only 7.4 fantasy points per game.
Will Lutz New Orleans Saints K6 86 Fantasy Points
I am all in on the Saints this week and Lutz is no different. Lutz has been perfect this season inside the 40 yard line (10/10), its beyond the 40 yard line where things get interesting. Lutz is 6/8 on his attempts between 40-49 yard and 2 of 4 beyond the 50-yard line. Regardless the Buccaneers allow the second most points to opposing kickers this season (9.4). I am betting on New Orleans moving the ball with relative ease and scoring a lot of points. In addition to numerous extra points, Lutz should add a few FG’s too.
Brett Maher Dallas Cowboys K11 79 Fantasy Points
Honestly selecting a kicker to start or sit is far from an exact science. I tend to target kickers on teams with a good offense. I also like kickers that kick indoors especially as the weather cools. Maher checks both these boxes this week. His Cowboys should have success on offense and when called upon Maher will be kicking within the controlled confines of Ford Field.
Matt Prater Detroit Lions K5 88 Fantasy Points
Unlike Brett Maher, Prater doesn’t check off both boxes this week. Sure, he is kicking inside that same controlled dome atmosphere, but the difference is the offense should struggle. With Jeff Driskel in for the injured Matthew Stafford I would not expect the Lions to move the ball that well or score many points.
Zane Gonzalez Arizona Cardinals K2 97 Fantasy Points
Gonzo has had a very good season for his Arizona Cardinals. He is 24/27 on his field goal attempts and is 100% on his 18 point after attempts. This sit is based on match-up. Arizona faces San Francisco and unlike week 9 I feel the Cardinals will struggle to get into scoring positions.
New York Jets DST11 70 Fantasy Points
There are very few scenarios where I would consider starting the New York Jets defense. One might be on a bet, and the other is a matchup versus the Washington Redskins and rookie QB Dwayne Haskins. The Jets will stack the box and force Haskins to beat them thru the air. This should lead to interceptions and likely some sacks. Haskins is simply not ready to start in this league even against a defense like the New York Jets.
Oakland Raiders DST26 47 Fantasy Points
Starting the Jets and the Raiders DST in the same week, welcome to Crazytown. Similar to the starting of the Jets this is driven by the opposing teams QB. Facing the Cincinnati Bengals and quarterback Ryan Finley is likely the only scenario where you are starting the Raiders DST. Wait do they play the Redskins this season?
Philadelphia Eagles DST16 66 Fantasy Points
I want nothing to do with the Eagles skill position players this week against the New England Patriots and their DST is no different. The Eagles have been a good run defense this season and bad versus the pass. In week 11 I expect the Patriots to expose both.
Baltimore Ravens DST7 81 Fantasy Points
The Ravens DST had a field day versus the Bengals last week. This week they get a Houston Texans team that has allowed opposing teams defense to score 4 points per game. Look to stream another option this week.
Best of luck in week 11 everyone. If you are stuck and need some start sit advice prior to Sunday, hit me up on twitter @RotoHeat Sully.