Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 77 of Sully’s 2 Cents Dynasty Fantasy Football podcast. A couple of seasons ago I wrote a weekly 32 fantasy thoughts article for RotoHeat that touched on each NFL team’s previous week. Those articles were quite enjoyable to put together and also rather time consuming. Since adding this podcast to my portfolio and increasing my content in general for the website, 32 thoughts articles fell by the wayside.
In episode 77, I am going to reboot it, sort of. In this episode I give you the 16 Dynasty Breakouts for 2020 – NFC, and next week I will do the same for the AFC. 32 in one pod would be a bit much. So without further ado lets get into it.
16 Dynasty Breakouts for 2020 – NFC
Arizona Cardinals – QB Kyler Murray
OK, so this one is rather easy, It’s fairly safe to say that Kyler broke out in his rookie season.
He won Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2019 and became one of just three signal-callers in NFL history to pass for 3,000 yards and run for 500 yards as a rookie. He finished his rookie season as QB7. The reality is Murray is well-positioned to be even better in 2020. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins was a massive boost to the Arizona passing game, and Kliff Kingsbury’s offensive scheme lends itself well to big numbers from its quarterback.
Kingsbury like Murray was a rookie in 2019, I would expect an improvement from both, an even faster pace and more 4 WR sets. Kenyan Drake upgrades the backfield, and Murray can still take off and ran the ball like a select few. In each of the last two seasons, a second-year quarterback took the league by storm on his way to winning NFL MVP. Kyler Murray is going to give three in a row a hell of a run in 2020.
Atlanta Falcons – WR Russell Gage
6th round selection out of LSU in 2018. 55 catches 509 yards and 1 TD in parts of two seasons in Atlanta. Not all breakouts will lead you to the ship, but Gage showed last year that he’s going to be a part of this offense and that he can be relied upon to contribute.
Mohammad Sanu was dealt to the Patriots prior to week 8 last year. At the time Gage 11 receptions for 102 yards. After the trade Gage finished the season with 38 catches 344 yards and a TD. Gage was WR120 before the trade and WR49 after it.
Furthermore, Austin Hooper missed weeks 11-13 a year ago, in those 3 games Gage saw 23 targets had 15 grabs for 145 yards and the only TD of his career. Small sample size but over 16 games at that pace its 80/773/5. In those 3 games Gage was WR27, that 16 game pace BTW would land him as WR32. Hooper is gone and as much as I dig Hayden Hurst, he’s not Austin Hooper. Gage has legit lower end WR3 potential and in the leagues, I play in where we start 3 WR and 2 flex spots he is absolutely relevant
Carolina Panthers – QB Teddy Bridgewater
It’s been a long road back to starting QB in the NFL for Teddy Bridgewater. In August of 2016 Bridgewater suffered a non-contract leg injury weeks before the start of the season. He tore his ACL and dislocated his knee joint. He missed the entire 2016 season and all but 1 appearance in 2017.
In 2018 he signed with the Jets and was later traded to the New Orleans Saints. IN 2019 after a thumb injury forced Drew Brees to the sidelines, Teddy made 5 starts for the Saints and went 5-0 in the process. 133/196 1384 yards, 9 TD and 2 picks. In those 5 games he averaged 9.25 points per game.
Signing with Carolina to be the starter is a great spot for Bridgewater. He is going to produce as a game manager. Bridgewater excels at putting the ball into the hands of his pass catchers. He wont wow you with air yards. Players like Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, and Curtis Samuel are perfect fits for Teddy. Bridgewater will be successful based on yards after the catch. This isn’t a breakout into the top 12 type of QB, but Bridgewater will exceed most expectations in 2020 and find himself in the 15-20 range at the position.
Chicago Bears – David Montgomery
There were two ways I could have gone when it comes to the Bears, Anthony Miller or David Montgomery. I went the Montgomery route for two reasons; 1. The Bears did not add anyone to the backfield this offseason, and 2. Their QB play is destine to be in the bottom third of the league once again in 2020.
Monty finished last season as RB24 with 170.4 PPR points. What makes that finish even more impressive than it looks is his rather odd usage in his rookie season. He averaged 17 touches a game which isn’t terrible, but his usage was wildly inconsistent almost to the point it seemed that Nagy forgot about him at times.
In Week 7, Montgomery had 27 carries 135 yards and a TD; week 17 23 carries 113 yards and a TD. These games highlight the capabilities of David Montgomery. Running backs will be a key cog in the Bears offense as the addition of Nick Floes doesn’t really move the needle. With 20 touches a game Monty will position himself to be at top end RB2 in 2020.
Dallas Cowboys – CeeDee Lamb
Among this year’s rookie wideouts, Lamb hit the situation jackpot. He has an elite quarterback throwing him the ball in Dak Prescott and two proven options ahead of him in Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup.
There’s going to be plenty of single coverage. Plenty of chances for Lamb to get open over the top.
There are 166 vacant targets from a year ago in Randall Cobb and Jason Witten. I obviously don’t see Lamb soaking up all 166, but is 90-100 out of the question? I don’t think so. Amari Cooper was targeted 119 times a year ago and Michael Gallup 113. Give them both a 10% raise and its 130 and 120. 50-70 targets for TE Blake Jarwin and you have 98 for Lamb on the high side and 78 on the low side, split the difference and we are talking 88 targets for CeeDee in 2020.
Prescott has a career completion percentage of 65% and its been incredibly consistent across his 4 seasons. 88 targets for CeeDee, 65% completed = 58 catches. Cobb put up 15.1 yards per reception in 2019, Cole Beasley put up 10.3, for the purpose of this exercise lets give CeeDee 12 yards per reception and let’s chuck in a modest 4 touchdowns. So, 88 targets 58 catches 696 yads and 4 touchdowns. 151.6 PPR fantasy points. Lamb in his rookie season based on these ultra conservative projections has a floor of a WR4 and his ceiling is likely lower end WR2 numbers in 2020. The difference between these projections and a WR2 season is 3.78 PPR points / game. In PPR 3.78 points is nothing.
Detroit Lions -RB D’Andre Swift
After winning just three games last year, and only one after October 1, the Detroit Lions want very badly to forget that the 2019 season ever happened. This team is in dire need of firepower on both sides of the ball. Detroit found some with the 35th overall pick of the 2020 draft.
Georgia’s D’Andre Swift was the No. 1 running back on more than a few pre-draft big. The 5’8″ 212-pounder is a do-it-all back as adept at catching the ball out of the backfield as he is grinding out yardage between the tackles.
The Lions have a talented back on the roster in Kerryon Johnson, but he’s had all kinds of trouble staying healthy—he’s missed at least half a dozen games in both of his professional seasons, not to mention his injury history in college and high school.
If Swift gets the opportunity to be Detroit’s featured back—and recent history indicates that he will—he will deliver you a RB season in 2020.
Green Bay Packers – Allen Lazard
You may have heard that the Green Bay Packers had an interesting draft. It wasn’t just the trade up to select Utah State quarterback Jordan Love in Round 1. The Packers also didn’t do anything to address a wideout corps that is one big question mark behind Davante Adams. That would appear to be a vote of confidence for Allen Lazard, who came on down the stretch last year.
Lazard is the most viable candidate to be the No. 2 receiver, given the confidence gained from his 2019 season, he possesses the ability to excel from every receiver spot and most importantly he has the trust of his quarterback. Lazard isn’t explosive but looks capable of handling high volume of targets. Playing opposite Adams means lot of single coverage, which could set the stage for a Lazard breakout.
Los Angeles Rams: Cam Akers
With Todd Gurley now in Atlanta Falcons, there’s a big hole atop the depth chart at running back for the Rams.
Akers has the ability to come in and be a game-changer, be everything this team and the fans need him to be and everything they’re expecting him to be.” It’s not a given that Akers will open the season as Los Angeles’ lead back. Malcolm Brown is coming off the best season of his career, and the Rams took Darrell Henderson in the third round in 2019.
But Brown’s “career year” was a whopping 255 rushing yards, and Henderson’s first pro season wasn’t especially impressive. The Rams thought enough of Akers to make him the team’s first draft pick this year, and we’ve already seen what a talented tailback can do in Sean McVay’s offense.
Minnesota Vikings: TE Irv Smith Jr.
If you want to own Irv Smith, do it now, his current value may be the lowest you’ll ever be able to get him.
A highly respected TE coming out of College. His stats didn’t blow up with only 300 yards and two touchdowns. He sat behind Kyle Rudolph for the whole season.
Rudolph ended up having a really decent season so Smith Jr’s opportunity was held in check. Rudolph is up there in age and eventually, the contract he signed won’t be worth the price. Smith Jr’s talent is too great to keep off the field and makes this a perfect time to go snag him for cheap. He will be way more involved in the Vikings offense in 2020 as Rudolph fades away. This time next year Irv Smith Jr. will be in the conversation for top 12 TE’s.
New Orleans Saints: TE Adam Trautman
Of all the teams that we have here, finding a breakout for the Saints was the hardest of them all. Brees, Kamara, Thomas, Cook, Sanders have all had their breakouts, they are the entire offense. With that in mind I like the recently drafted Adam Trautman.
Calling him a breakout in 2020 is a stretch but it’s my show and I am going with Trautman. He possesses excellent height, length, and frame at the tight end position. He’s an explosive athlete with a good blend of speed and short-area agility at the top of his routes. Basketball background — boxes out defenders and leaps off the ground for the ball like a power forward.
He’s still learning the nuances of the tight end position, but is there a better place to learn than in New Orleans with a sure fire first ballot hall of fame QB and one of the strongest offensive minds in the game in Sean Payton?
New York Giants: QB Daniel Jones
Giants head coach Joe Judge has reportedly been impressed by how second-year QB Daniel Jones has carried himself in this oddest of offseasons. Judge will be that much more impressed if Jones can play with more consistency in 2020.
Jones had his moments as a rookie—from his comeback against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a five-touchdown effort against the Washington Redskins in Week 16. But there were some clunkers, as well—Jones had a pair of three-interception games in losses to the Patriots and Packers. And at times he looked like he was holding a hand grenade with the pin pulled instead of the football. He simply couldn’t drop it fast enough.
If Jones can cut down on those mistakes this year, his status as the starter under center in the Big Apple just about guarantees stardom.
Philadelphia Eagles: RB Miles Sanders
I keep saying I am not a Miles Sanders guy, I’m really not, but how do you deny the talkent and the opportunity here. We saw what he could do in the passing game early last season and when Jordan Howard went down with injury we saw the complete package. Sanders is another one of those listed here that may have already broken out.
He finished his rookie season as RB15 and if the Eagles head to the season with the current depth chart I see no reason why he cannot land inside the top 12 in 2020.
San Francisco 49ers: WR Brandon Aiyuk
The San Francisco 49ers aren’t a team that’s really waiting for players to break out. Quite a few of them already broke out during last season’s run to the NFC title.
There are a couple of rookies who will be counted on to play key roles in 2020. On defense, tackle Javon Kinlaw will be asked to fill the void left by the departure of DeForest Buckner. And on offense, it will fall to Brandon Aiyuk to step into the hole created by the loss of Emmanuel Sanders.
You could certainly do worse as situations go to start your professional career. Aiyuk will be playing for one of the league’s best teams. The 49ers led the NFC in rushing last year, averaging over 144 yards per game. And with tight end George Kittle and wideout Deebo Samuel on the team, Aiyuk won’t be tasked with having to carry the passing attack.
What he will be asked to do is use his size (6’0″, 205 lbs) and speed to help give the Niners more pop down the field. Aiyuk isn’t going to lead the 49ers in receptions. Or yardage. But yards per catch is another story.
Seattle Seahawks: WR DK Metcalf
I often call out when I have a take that ends up being wrong. I believe that it is important to own when you are wrong, in order to be able to celebrate when you are right. With that said I was right about D.K. Metcalf. I had Metcalf as my top rated WR last season.
He didn’t disappoint. Sure he was the 3rd highest scoring rookie WR behind AJ Brown and Deebo Samuel but he still exceeded expectations. He was WR33 overall with 187.1 PPR points. He is going to continue to develop and in 2020 should land comfortably in the top 24.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TE OJ Howard
I know that the excitement in Tampa surrounding the TE position lies with Rob Gronkowski and the masses have written off OJ Howard. Well I am here to tell you all to pump the brakes on that talk.
Gronk is going to resemble more of the declining Rob Gronkowski that we all saw in 2018 than Gronk that established himself as the best TE in the history of the game. Gronk in Tampa is good for Howard. Think Aaron Hernandez without all the murder, Brady can support two tight ends even at 43 years old.
Don’t worry about the Bruce Arians offense not using the TE position, Tom Brady does, and TB12 does what TB12 wants to do. Howard finished as the TE21 in 2017, TE14 in 2018, and TE29 a year ago. In 2020 Howard sets a personal best just outside the top 12.
Washington Redskins: RB Derrius Guice
Guice played in just five games in 2019, a season after missing the entore year after tearing his ACK in the preseason. In those 5 games he showed his upside, averaging 5.8 yards per carry and scoring three touchdowns. His 11.5 fantasy points per game projects to a 184 PPR season. 184 would have seen him finish as the RB22 in 2019.
He should return as Washington’s lead RB next season and he can finally overcome injury and terrible luck, Guice has top 20 RB upside. The Redskins offense as a whole should improve in 2020 and Guice I expect will be a large reason why.
Well that’s going to do it for this episode.
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I’ll be back with episode 78 and the 16 Dynasty Breakouts for 2020 in the AFC next week.
Stay safe, and healthy Heat Seekers.