100 Random Thoughts on Fantasy Football and life
Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 100 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football podcast. I am your host Rob Sullivan. Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football podcast is a proud member of the Rotheat.com family of podcasts. I appreciate you taking the time to tune into the show.
Well here we are, episode 100 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football podcast.
I started Sully’s 2 cents Dynasty Fantasy football Podcast in the Spring of last year. When I started it, I had no idea where it would take me. To be truthful 100 episodes in, I still don’t. I am just thankful that I have a platform to do this and that I have people like you who take the time to listen.
Solo podcasting isn’t the easiest thing in the world and it is light years more demanding than having guests, having to carry the entire show is much more demanding than I originally anticipated. I am not sure if anyone realizes but all of my 100 podcasts have been scripted. I write them all and the average 30-minute podcast is approx. 4000-6000 words. I do my best not to come across as someone who is reading, and I can say quite confidently that I have come a long way in the 99 episodes leading up to this one.
I started to think that I should plan something for my 100th a few weeks back, and honestly nothing came to mind. I had some suggestions and although 100 guests would be cool, I figured that type of episode from someone who has yet to have 1 guest was a little far fetched. Then the top 100 list was suggested. I figured why not, that sounds like fun and I started into it. I got about 14 thoughts into my script and thought good god this is going to be a disaster and who knows maybe it still will be, but without further ado, here are my 100 Random thoughts on Fantasy Football and life
100. I spend far too much time on fantasy football. With that said, I wouldn’t have it any other way, this is a labour of love!
99. Aaron Donald is the type of football player that makes me want to join an IDP league even though I know absolutely nothing about IDP. Thankfully, there is the IDP Heat Seekers live stream each Monday night over on the RotoHeat YouTube Channel hosted by the one and only Brad Menendez.
98. All fantasy Football leagues should be PPR leagues.
97. Fantasy Football should be about scoring points and limiting points in a .5 PPR league or a standard league scoring is just silly IMO.
96. All fantasy leagues should be Super-flex leagues. The QB value in a 1QB is embarrassing and I should not feel comfortable with anyone of 28 guys stating for me at the position on a week to week basis.
95. Did you know there were 40 QBs in 2019 that had at least one top 12 fantasy week? Think about how crazy that is in a 32-team league.
94. I joined my first fantasy football league in 2007. My first-round pick was Tom Brady. Brady finished 398/578 for 4806 yards and 50 TD passes that season. He was the QB1, 82 points better that Tony Romo. I didn’t win that league and I would have to say I have come a long way as a fantasy football manager, quarterbacks are no longer my first round selections. Side note I do not remember Tony Romo ever having a QB2 overall season.
93. My favorite team growing up as a kid was the Pittsburgh Steelers. I am old enough to remember watching Terry Bradshaw slinging it to Lynn Swaan, and John Stallworth. I then briefly become a Redskins fan, followed by the Houston Oilers and my man Warren Moon. I followed Moon to Minnesota, and I have been Vikings fan ever since.
92. My all-time favorite fantasy football player is LaDainian Tomlinson. Dude was amazing. From 2001-2009 LT averaged 17 touchdowns a season. His lowest was 10 in his rookie season and his highest was 31 in 2006. That season he had 1815 rushing yards, and 508 receiving yards on 56 receptions. 474.3 PPR points the best season ever.
91. To this day the best football game I have ever seen is referred to as Epic in Miami. The Epic in Miami was the AFC divisional playoff game between the San Diego Chargers and Miami Dolphins that took place on January 2, 1982 in the Miami Orange Bowl. The Chargers won 41-38 in overtime on a Rolf Benirschke 29-yard FG. Earlier in overtime Benirschke missed a 27-yard attempt and the Chargers blocked a 35-yard Dolphins FG. The game was ridiculous, and it will remain a game that I will never forget. Bonus thought, Rolf Benirschke briefly replaced Pat Sajak as the host of Wheel of Fortune.
90. My second favorite game of all time was the Minneapolis Miracle. Sadly, for Vikings fans it was all for not and its 59 years and counting that we have been waiting on our first Championship.
89. My first sporting love as a Canadian was hockey and oddly enough my favorite early hockey memory was the 1980 US Olympic team defeating the Russia in Lake Placid NY. A few days later the US team defeated Finland and won the gold medal again the most ridiculous of odds. For all you kids out there, its where Al Micheals “do you believe in miracles” quote came from.
88. I joined a Dynasty Facebook Group in the spring of 2018, and quickly there after joined a better Dynasty community then know as the Dynasty RedZone.
87. A few months later there was a post seeking writers for this group. Well I jumped at the chance as it has been a lifelong dream to share all this useless knowledge in my head for others to enjoy. I remember receiving the email, “Congratulations your are Dynasty RedZone’s first writer like it was yesterday.
86. June 30, 2018, my first article appeared on a site then known as DynastyRedZone.com – Sully’s way too Early 2018 Bold Predictions. My breakout QB was Mitch Trubisky and my bust was Dak Prescott. Mitch finished as QB15 (not too shabby) and Dak as QB12. Man, things have changed a lot in a few short years. Its in the archives on RotoHeat.com if you want to read it.
85. This podcast is the 410th piece of content that I have contributed to the now RotoHeat.com website, and I am just getting started!
84. I have written articles, recorded this podcast, and I briefly did some start sit and waiver wire videos.
83. I love writing first and foremost and I do believe it is what I do best.
82. Writing is like anything else you will do in life, the more you out into it the more you can expect to get out of it.
81. I research the hell out of my content.
80. The data collection for my rookie hit rates articles and podcasts took me three weeks to compile. My 2020 redraft draft cheat sheet took me over a month.
79. My written content is typically over the top and more words that they should be. Why? I want those that read it to be informed to get all the information possible so they can form their own opinions.
78. Sully’s 2 cents is all about just that, giving you information to do with what you will. If I suggest that Joe Burrow is the next Andrew Luck, I will do my best to explain why. Its up to you to decide if I am correct. By the way for you new listeners, I do think Burrow is the next Andrew Luck. Hopefully this version that plays past his 29th birthday.
77. Our editor and the most unsung hero on our team Adam Gruse teaches me about grammar almost daily and I still don’t get it. Adam makes all our work look good, which is no easy task. I have to think he wishes I would get to the point when editing my pieces . Case in point this podcast is 1258 words in and I am on thought 77. He deserves a medal for editing my 10,000+ word article on Joe Burrow , not to mention all the 8-part series that I continue to dream up in my head.
76. Random thought 76 – May 8, 2020. Rookie Fever. By far my favorite episode of Sully’s 2 Cents to date. In Episode 76, I talked about the Rookie Fever that hits hard this time of year. Utilizing historical draft data dating back to 2010, I set out to determine if rookie fever is legit or if its a myth. In addition, and my favorite part, I compared the value of Lamar Jackson in a .5ppr 1 QB league to the 1.06 rookie pick. Let’s just say it didn’t go as I had initially planned. If you haven’t heard that episode, please give it a listen https://rotoheat.com/76-rookie-fever/
75. The best part of the Rotoheat team are the people on it. I’ll do my best to salute them and do them justice along the way here. Without them I am talking into a hairbrush in front of my bathroom mirror, instead of this Blue Yeti microphone in my home office. I used to do NHL: play by play into a tape recorder my grand father got me for my birthday when I was 8. I wore that bad boy out.
74. My stepson Kyle got me this Blue Yeti mic for Christmas a few years back, because he knew I wanted to start my own podcast. Kyle and my wife Karen are so much more than I deserve. More on them to come in the next 73 thoughts.
73. I am extremely comfortable taking shots at myself, and not overly confident taking credit when I deserve it.
72. I have had some really good takes in my time here with RotoHeat.
71. I called Tyler Boyd a breakout in 2018 when the public was on John Ross. Boyd finished 2018 as WR16 with 221.1 PPR points, John Ross WR86 with 84.9 PPR points.
70. I was high on Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook a year ago, when the public was down on them because they will never be healthy. Cook finished at RB6 and Fournette at RB7.
69. I was down on Le’Veon Bell ranking him as an RB2 and listening to people tell me I am crazy. Le’Veon Bell in 2019 finished as RB16, right about where I figured he would end up.
68. For every good take there are several bad ones.
67. Alex Collins would be a top 12 RB in 2018. Collins finished as RB44, had a bad case of the fumbles and lost his job to rookie Gus Edwards. A year later he ended up in prison and didn’t play a snap. Collins is far from my only bad take but it’s the one I carry with me.
66. For two straight years I was telling all those that cared and many that didn’t that Julio Jones was nearing the end.
65. In those two seasons, Julio finished as the WR4 and the WR3, with a combined 599.9 PPR points: 31 games, 212 receptions, 3,071 yards and 14 touchdowns.
64. Andy Isabella and Benny Snell were two of my favorite rookies a year ago, they combined for 93.3 fantasy points. Isabella WR131, Snell RB68
63. Have a take, and own it is all I ask. I will always own my bad takes and I will talk about them far more than the takes I get right. Its who I am and what I do.
62. Rookie drafts are fun, having multiple picks in rookie drafts is even better.
61. My advice to you all, don’t get stuck on rookie fever island. That island’s population this offseason exceeded capacity.
60. There were 117 Quarterbacks drafted from 2010-2019 – 7 of the 117 delivered a QB1 season as a rookie – 5.98%
59. 214 Running Backs drafted. 14 of the 214 RBs delivered a RB1 season as a rookie (6.50%), 9 top 24 (10.7%), and 20 top 36 rookie season. (20%).
58. 305 Wide Receivers were drafted from 2010-2019. 2 of the 305 delivered a WR1 season as a rookie (.65%) – Odell Beckham Jr in 2016 and Michael Thomas in 2016. 11 had a top-24 rookie season and 10 a top-36 season. Throw in another 10 that were WR4’s in their rookie season and you have a total of 33 fantasy relevant rookie WRs in 10 seasons. 10.8% of the 305 selected.
57. 143 Tight Ends drafted from 2010-2019 – 2 top 12’s – Rob Gronkowski and Evan Engram. 14 top-24 seasons. 16 of the 143 drafted rookie TEs were fantasy relevant as a rookie (11.18%). 14 of the 16 (87.5%), were a flex play if you only considered TEs in your flex spot. 2 Aaron Hernandez, (142 pts. in 2010) and Hunter Henry, (130.2 in 2016) would have been flex plays factoring in all other positions in their rookie season. Basically 1.39% of rookie TEs were serviceable for fantasy in the last 10 years.
56. 779 drafted rookies in the past 10 seasons. 99 were fantasy relevant. 12.7%. By fantasy relevant I mean a player you could actually start, weekly starters the total is 55, or 7%.
55. Leave rookies alone in redraft and value them accordingly in dynasty, I wont bored you all further with their career numbers. If you are really interested go back and listen to episode 75-77.
54. The top 4 scoring QB’s from weeks 10-17 a season ago were Lamar Jackson 30.9, Ryan Tannehill 24, Drew Brees 22.6, and Jameis Winston 22.4.
53. There are 6 QBs that I target in my redraft drafts; Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray.
52. I almost always ruled out Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson because of their ADP. Of the remaining four, I want the last one left on the board. If I don’t get one of those four I will wait until the deep rounds to grab one.
51. Three of top 5 in target share a season ago were tight ends; Mark Andrews (31%), Tyler Higbee (31%), George Kittle (30%).
50. 2 of the 3 are in line for more of the same. I worry about Tyler Higbee.
49. The other two in that top 5, Michael Thomas (30%), and Devante Adams (29%), will be just fine
48. Similar to the QB position. If I don’t land one of the top TEs and by top TEs I mean Travis Kelce, George Kittle, or Mark Andrews I will simply wait into the double digit rounds. I recently completed a 16 round 1 QB PPR scoring redraft league draft in which I used my 16th round selection on TE Jonnu Smith and I am perfectly fine with it.
47. Last season taught us this. Three of the top-10 finishers were likely undrafted in your league: Darren Waller (3rd), Tyler Higbee (8th), and Dallas Goedert (10th).
46. TE to target this season late are Jonnu Smith, Blake Jarwin, and Mike Gesicki.
45. If you are into really waiting on TE, grab Irv Smith Jr. or even Ian Thomas.
44. Running backs in your drafts are like hot chicks in high school, they go quickly
43. 2020 is not a year to employ a zero RB draft strategy in my humble opinion. Been there done that don’t love the results. I had the pleasure of being invited into the Scott Fish Bowl this season for the first time and I found myself going zero RB even though it wasn’t the plan.
42. If zero RB is your jam I recommend targeting James Conner (ADP54), Mark Ingram (ADP51), Kareem Hunt (ADP70), David Montgomery (ADP60), and perhaps even Jonathan Taylor (ADP36), Raheem Mostert (ADP46), and Devin Singletary (ADP59).
41. Brandon Aiyuk never dropped a pass over 20+ yards in his career at Arizona State.
40. I know I cautioned y’all on rookie fever but with Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd missing time, its worth a shot on Aiyuk. His ADP is currently round 14 of a 12 team draft. I believe he is a value as long as he is drafted in round 12 or later. His recent injury does scare me slightly bu this late in the draft i’m ok with flyers.
39. Pass catching running backs are gold. The value of receiving far exceeds the value of rushing
38. You can never have too many running backs regardless of the format you are playing in.
37. Rushing QBs are a massive advantage especially in 4 point per passing touchdown leagues.
36. The Konami Code was originally coined (for fantasy purposes) by Rich Hribar back in 2013. Rushing yards are worth 2.5 times as much as passing yards, and rushing touchdowns are worth 1.5 times as much as passing touchdowns.
35. In 2019 alone 5 of the top 7 scoring fantasy QB’s ran for at least 342 yards and rushed for 3 touchdowns. The other two Dak Prescott and Jameis Winston posted 277 & 3, and 250 & 1 respectively.
34. Lamar Jackson as a runner alone in 2019 was RB28, without any rushing stats he was QB11.
33. Josh Allen was QB6 last season. His 105 rushing points were 35% of his 297.56 total points. Josh Allen’s next 300 yard passing game will be his first and he’s a consensus top-12 QB.
32. Target your QB late and target ones that use their legs. This season its hard to overlook the value that Cam Newton appears to be.
31. Green Bay Packers WR Davante Adams, leads all receivers in red zone targets over the last five seasons, and his touchdown rate during that span is 29.8%. 4.8% above the league average (25%). It helps to be the only truly viable pass catching option at WR for Aaron Rodgers.
30. Air yards is a sexy stat in fantasy football. It’s been shown that air yards are extremely important when it comes to predicting fantasy football success for wide receivers, specifically looking at aDOT (average depth of target).
29. Air yards and aDot are one of the reasons I am so high on Matthew Stafford and Kenny Golladay in 2020. Golladay lead the league in 2019 with 15 yards as his average depth of target and he played half the year with backup level QBs. Stafford prior to his injury league-high 10.8-yard aDOT (average depth of target). The Lions offense scored 21 touchdowns during Stafford’s eight starts. Kenny G had 7 of them.
28. Seven WR finished with an aDot over 10 yards last season; Golladay, Devante Parker, Amari Cooper, Julio Jones, D.J. Moore, Chris Godwin and Keenan Allen. Their fantasy finishes in PPR last season; 9,11,10,3,16,2, and 6.
27. Fantasy Football is no different than anything else you do. The more effort you put into it, the better the expected results should be. Do your homework is the lesson here.
26. Take you guys, start your guys, make waiver claims on your guys. Don’t worry about what so called experts say. Use that info as a means of collecting data and make your decision.
25. Own your decisions, after all it’s your fantasy team.
24. The biggest pet peeve I have in fantasy football is owners blaming players and analysts for their lineups. The RB didn’t fumble to screw you, spoiler alert he doesn’t give a shit about your fantasy roster. We don’t suggest a certain player to start over another to be able to HAHA gottcha after the game. We genuinely give you advice that we ourselves would follow. We are not perfect far from it. Bottom line is it’s your roster you have to own what you do with it.
23. Stop playing in leagues with a Kicker and Defense/Special Teams scoring. Especially in Dynasty Leagues.
22. Best Ball leagues are great leagues for those that are not crazy degenerates like me or for crazy degenerates like me that have too many leagues to manage. I am rapidly approaching the later and I am not in any best ball leagues.
21. If you haven’t played in a Guillotine League, I highly recommend it. In a Guillotine League the lowest scoring team in the league each week is eliminated and the players on their rosters enter the free agent pool. They are a blast except when your teams are eliminated. Week 7 was a as far as I went a year ago.
20. Before joining a league, read the rules and the bylaws. If the league doesn’t have bylaws, don’t enter it, especially Dynasty Leagues
19. Far too many leagues that I am in I see posts from owners asking if this is PPR. You are cutting off your legs if you enter a league without knowing all the settings
18. If a league doesn’t secure its funds thru League Safe don’t enter it .
17. Number 1 rule of Fantasy Football, is have fun. Somewhere along the way a lot of us seem to have forgotten this is a game. This can be an amazing source of entertainment if you let it be. Hell a $100 league costs you $6.25 a week.
16. Patreon. Pay it forward, I am not just suggesting RotoHeat’s Patreon even though we would appreciate it. There are a lot more men and women in this business doing this Pro Bono that there are getting paid for their efforts. All I can do is speak to the talent we have at RotoHeat. Kick us a few bucks each month if you can afford it, it would be greatly appreciated.
15. CeeDee Lamb is my #1 rookie WR this season and Clyde Edwards-Helaire is my top rookie RB. I feel a hell of a lot better about Lamb this season than I do CEH. Call me crazy.
14. The Office and Seinfeld are two of the best sitcoms of all time and deserve your respect.
13. Recently finished watching Sons of Anarchy. Kurt Sutter is a genius and this show is great. Not sure why I didn’t watch it when it first came out.
13. Last Chance U is getting worse with each passing season, perhaps its run its course. It was refreshing to see a head coach that actually seemed to care about his players this season though.
12. If you haven’t watched Suits, you should. I am currently re-watching it and enjoying it more than I did the initial time.
11. Mars is the best chocolate bar there is and vanilla is the best flavor of ice cream.
10. Mark Charbonneau – one of the key members of my inner circle and the reason you are listening to this. Well I hope you are still listening I should say. Mark is the commissioner of my first dynasty league. I league where I am stacked and can’t seemed to win. Mark introduced me to a Dynasty Group on Facebook that led me to the Dynasty RedZone Group. For you long timers, you’ll recall that Rotoheat started out as Dynasty RedZone. Well I started writing for DRZ and this podcast was born a while later. Mark is a great friend, a shroud dynasty trader and the reason I got into all this. Thanks Mark I am having a blast.
9. Ryan Ives – The man that named this podcast. I am forever grateful. I also have the pleasure of playing in a few leagues with Ryan and long-time Rotoheat member Ray Fryer. This year Ryan is in my Sully 2 Cents Listener League. Ryan I owe you a beer or two man, and I am dying to try some of your barbeque.
8. Blair Dickey & Josh Crabb – what can I say about this duo. First of all, I have to list them together. If one was ahead of the other, I would never hear the end of it. I think these two clowns have been here since day 1 and have actually listened to all 100 episodes. I don’t even think I have LOL. Seriously the support from these gentlemen has been amazing, two of my closest friends that I have never met. Looking forward to kicking both your asses in my listener league this season. Thanks guys the support means more than I can put into words.
7.The RotoHeat Team – This group of degenerates lift me up and keep me going. There are members that have come and gone, and I miss those that have left, but this team is rock solid. Sean Coffey, Rob Silvers, Kevin Pons, Mitch Sprague, Kraig Reuth, Josh Custer, Bryce Frazier, Anthony Leone, Jason Abild, Jacob Wallace, and my man Adam Gruse. These dudes are all legit and I am honored to be a part of this talented group.
6. Craig Bullock – Craig is a member of our team and a successful entrepreneur as well. Some of the best writing advice I have ever received is from Craig and I am so happy he is a leader on this team, and he is always there to help regardless of how busy the man is
5. Brad Menendez – This dude is a grinder. Hosts two streams a week, kills it with player profile videos, writes killer content, on boards new team members you name it Brad does it, in addition to be a Dad a husband and a pastor. Respect this man more than y’all will ever know.
4. Ricks Butts – The man. Simply put none of this is possible without Rick’s vision and unrelentless work ethic. Rick is the only man I know that sleeps less than I do. He is always there to support me regardless of my crazy ideas, and he is the man that took a chance on me and brought me on as a writer. I am a pain in his ass more that anyone can possibly know, and when I get in one of my moods Rick has the ability to let me vent and fixes my shit all at the same time. In addition to the fantasy group and rotoheat.com, he spearheaded our YouTube Channel and we are now over 1000 subscribers, runs numerous fantasy leagues and keeps adding to the list even though he swears he isn’t adding anymore. BTW the man has a successful day job on top of all of this, remember the doesn’t sleep part. I also here is a an ok Call of Duty Player but it depends who you ask!
3. Karen and Kyle – My real MVP’s. When I met my wife she came with a wicked seven year old kid named Kyle. I basically won the lottery and had no idea. For the last 19 years these two have had to up with a lot of my garbage. My stepson who I will often refer to as my boy, because in my heart he is, an amazing young man who always loves and supports me no matter what. He just bought his first house and I could not be more proud of this kid. Amazing people have amazing kids. That is the work of my beautiful wife Karen. Not only is my wife an amazing mother, she’s a hell of a wife too. Honestly not sure why she keeps me around, but I am sure glad she does. She somehow puts up with my two full-time jobs, the one that pays the bills and this one. I certainly out kicked my coverage here. I love you both so much and can not possibly thank you enough for the ongoing support.
2. Enough is enough. Pineapple and fruit in general do not belong on a pizza. If you disagree that is fine, just know that you are wrong, and move on.
1. Episode 1 of Sully’s 2 cents. Episode One aired on April 25, 2019. At the 2:37 mark I dub the listeners the Heat Seekers. That my friends is the highlight of the episode. Other items of note in the episode was the discussion of Odell Beckham Jr being dealt to Cleveland, Antonio Brown to Oakland. I have thankfully learnt a lot in terms of editing over the past few years.
That’s going to do it for this episode.
Thank you for listening to 100 Random Thoughts on Fantasy Football and life.
If you have yet to subscribe to Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast you can do so by searching for it on Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, Podbean, Spotify, Google Play, and now Player FM.
In addition, you can find me on twitter @RotoHeatSully, in both the RotoHeat Dynasty Fantasy Football Community , and RotoHeat Redraft Fantasy Football Community on Facebook and I am @Sully in our Discord chat as well.
Don’t forget to tune in over on YouTube to the Fantasy Inferno Live Steam Wednesday Nights 9:30 EST with Rob Silvers, Bryce Frazier and myself.
I’ll be back next soon with episode 101, where I’ll share my updated 87. Until then, stay safe and stay healthy Heat Seekers. Take care.